2:00PM Water Cooler 3/5/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Some readers requested for one thing desk of contents-like, so listed below are a number of highlights:

Highlights:

(1) Victoria Nuland, baker of cookies, retires.

(2) What if Congress decides to not depend Trump’s electors?

(3) On the extraordinary and sudden drop in Walgreens Positivity numbers;

(4) Taylor Swift has a cough.

Chook Tune of the Day

Mountain Mouse-Warbler, 1 km N Warili Lodge, under Tari Hole, Southern Highlands, Papua New Guinea. I assume close to a waterfall… However a reasonably track!

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order (Rebel)

“Supreme Courtroom guidelines states can’t take away Trump from poll for revolt” [SCOTUSblog]. “Of their six-page joint opinion, Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson agreed with the end result that the per curiam opinion reached – that Colorado can’t disqualify Trump – however not its reasoning. The three justices acknowledged that allowing Colorado to take away Trump from the poll ‘would … create a chaotic state-by-state patchwork.’ However the majority shouldn’t, of their view, have gone on to determine who can implement Part 3 and the way. Nothing in Part 3 signifies that it should be enforced by way of laws enacted by Congress pursuant to Part 5, they contended. And by resolving ‘many unsettled questions on Part 3,’ the three justices complained, ‘the bulk goes past the requirements of this case to restrict how Part 3 can bar an oathbreaking insurrectionist from changing into President.’” • And–

“Takeaways from Trump’s Supreme Courtroom win: He stays on poll, however his authorized peril is simply beginning” [Associated Press]. “However one other potential nightmare is that if Congress is the one entity that may decide whether or not a presidential hopeful is certainly disqualified for partaking in ‘revolt,’ that it makes that dedication on Jan. 6, 2025, when required to certify a potential Trump victory within the presidential election. The excessive courtroom shut down the primary risk, however might have left the door open to the second. The five-justice majority — all from the courtroom’s conservative wing — stated Congress can implement Part 3 by way of laws, ‘topic after all to judicial assessment.’ (Which means the courtroom reserves for itself the precise to have the ultimate say.) That triggered a dissent from the courtroom’s three liberals, who complained that that ‘shuts the door on different potential technique of federal enforcement.’ That would seem to incorporate a rejection of Trump’s electors ought to he win the election — however a number of authorized specialists stated Monday that it wasn’t that clear, and the one option to know could also be for Congress to strive.’” • Usually, successful each Homes along with the Presidency is taken into account supreme, however for Republicans this 12 months, it’s actually supreme. And–

“‘They didn’t do it clearly sufficient’: SCOTUS ruling prompts worries of one other Jan. 6 disaster” [Politico]. “The 5 justices who absolutely endorsed the courtroom’s lead opinion envisioned Congress passing ‘enforcement laws’ to make this name. However students say the 13-page opinion left room for Trump’s detractors to pursue one other path if he receives a majority of electoral votes this November: They may attempt to throw out his electoral votes on Jan. 6, 2025, when Congress will meet to certify the winner of the 2024 election.” And: “Some constitutional students famous, nonetheless, that Congress did cross laws that lawmakers might view as justifying challenges to Trump’s electors in 2025: a 2022 regulation reforming the electoral vote counting course of supposed to stop a future effort to subvert the outcomes. That regulation sharply restricted the forms of challenges lawmakers might elevate to electoral votes licensed by the states however included a key exception: .” • Right here is identical situation made extra concretely, additionally from Politico–

“The evident omissions and telling fractures within the Trump poll ruling” [Politico]. “Think about a situation through which Trump prevails within the November election and no less than one department of Congress finally ends up below Democratic management. On Jan. 6, 2025, the newly elected Congress will meet to certify the outcomes of the Electoral Faculty. And in that situation, Democrats — a few of whom have already declared that they consider Trump is ineligible to serve — must determine whether or not to depend Trump’s electoral votes and certify the election. It’s not tough to think about a motion to refuse to depend Trump’s electors by citing the 14th Modification and the Supreme Courtroom’s resolution empowering Congress to implement it.” • And naturally, the Democrats might attempt to create “faithless electors,” as in 2016. Talking of the switch of energy in “our democracy.”

The Constitutional Order (Eighth Modification)

“‘Clear’ property, non-public lenders might be Trump’s greatest choice to get $540 million for authorized judgments” [CNBC]. “In addition they say Trump can’t merely submit a money deposit — no less than not in his New York civil enterprise fraud case, the place he’s dealing with $454 million in fines and curiosity alone. ‘Nobody, together with Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and Donald Trump, has 5 hundred million laying round,’ Trump’s lawyer Chris Kise informed an appeals courtroom choose final week. However authorized specialists say there’s another choice that Trump’s attorneys haven’t talked about within the courtroom filings: Trump might provide up a few of his properties as collateral to borrow what he wants — probably from non-public fairness sources. There are ‘numerous non-public lenders on the market within the debt markets and personal fairness markets that might lend’ to Trump, stated Columbia College regulation professor Eric Talley. ‘In all instances, the loans would in all probability must be secured with Trump properties, but when there’s sufficient fairness in a few of them, he ought to be capable to receive secured credit score, even on a compressed timeline,’ Talley stated. Any loans ‘would themselves contain making declarations of the worth of the property — and that after all is what acquired him into this mess to start with,’ stated Talley. However , and didn’t rely solely on the claims at challenge in his monetary statements. A extra essential issue might be whether or not Trump’s actual property belongings are already mortgaged, stated regulation professor John Espresso. ‘He must provide you with clear actual property property that isn’t already securing one thing that another financial institution has a lien on,’ Espresso stated. ‘Does he have that property? I can’t inform you.’” • Hmm.

Biden Administration

“White Home lifting its COVID-19 testing rule for folks round Biden, ending a pandemic vestige” [Associated Press]. • “Vestige.” One should admire BIden’s dedication to the bit, and the (pre-SOTU) timing, oddly coincident with CDC’s “someday” isolation steering. One can solely hope that nothing horrible occurs, though….

And in addition earlier than the SOTU:

It’s notable that Blinken selected the phrase “retirement.” It has a hoop of finality to it, which might be not a notion Nuland would have needed to undertaking. Maybe this case is just not as voluntary as it could appear. pic.twitter.com/tyciGE49QJ

— Hans Mahncke (@HansMahncke) March 5, 2024

What a disgrace. It couldn’t occur to a nicer Ukrainian irredentist. Did she fall, or was she pushed?

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

* * *

Trump (R): “Takeaways from Trump’s Supreme Courtroom win: He stays on poll, however his authorized peril is simply beginning” [Associated Press]. The state of play: “Few observers anticipated the Supreme Courtroom to maintain Trump off the poll. However he’s dealing with way more perilous authorized highway forward. The primary of Trump’s felony trials, for allegedly falsifying enterprise data to pay hush cash to an grownup movie actress throughout the 2016 presidential marketing campaign, is scheduled to begin in New York later this month. The previous president can be interesting a New York choose’s ruling that he pay $355 million for fraud dedicated by his companies, and verdict that he pay a author $83 million for defaming her after she sued him for sexual assault. Relying on how and the way rapidly the excessive courtroom guidelines on Trump’s immunity declare, he might nonetheless face costs for attempting to overturn the 2020 election in Washington DC earlier than this November’s election. Two extra instances usually tend to come later – in Atlanta the place Trump faces state costs for his 2020 election plot, and in Florida the place he’s tentatively scheduled for a Might trial on improper retention of labeled paperwork after leaving the presidency, however the trial date is predicted to be postponed. Monday was a win Trump wanted to proceed his marketing campaign, however his days in courtroom are removed from over.”

Trump (R): “The Supreme Courtroom simply crushed any hope that Trump might be faraway from the poll” [Vox]. “Which means that any try to disqualify Trump is sort of actually useless. Even when particular counsel Jack Smith can amend his indictment to deliver costs below the revolt statute [and why would he do that, if he has not already done it?], the Courtroom’s resolution to slow-walk Trump’s trial implies that the election will most definitely be over earlier than that trial takes place. The courts, it’s now crystal clear, usually are not going to do a lot of something to stop an insurrectionist former president from occupying the White Home as soon as once more. And the Supreme Courtroom seems to be actively operating interference on Trump’s behalf.”

Trump (R): “Regardless of win, Supreme Courtroom strikes blow to Trump’s central marketing campaign theme” [ABC]. “The Trump playbook is effectively established. When authorized proceedings don’t go his manner, he lashes out at judges, prosecutors, courtroom workers, witnesses and even potential juries. The Supreme Courtroom, together with the justices he nominated to the courtroom, have been the goal of Trump’s wrath after they have proven independence up to now.” • I believe the headline overstates the case. The argument, insofar as I can parse it out, is that since a Courtroom resolution went Trump’s manner, none of Trump’s previous complaints about bias have been justified. The argument may be made that Trump has lastly instilled concern within the Courtroom.

* * *

Biden (D): “Joe Biden’s Final Marketing campaign” [The New Yorker]. “Unsurprisingly, Biden’s aides reject the concept the White Home is insular or dismissive of actuality. Zients, who succeeded Ron Klain as chief of employees final 12 months, pointed to Biden’s fame for soliciting opinions from critics. ‘Simply the opposite day, he picked up the cellphone and referred to as Larry Summers,’ Zients stated. As outreach goes, it was comparatively secure; Summers, regardless of his vital feedback, is a longtime adviser to Presidents. Biden’s different occasional calls vary from the columnist Thomas Friedman to the Senate Republican chief Mitch McConnell. ‘,’ Zients stated.” • Wowsers.

* * *

“Will Biden or Trump win ‘double haters’? Sad voters might determine 2024 election.” [USA Today]. “One essential voting group we will probably be watching is voters who’re unfavorable towards each Biden and Trump. These ‘double haters’ or ‘double unfavorables’ present important volatility, questionable turnout and a eager curiosity in third-party candidates…. The newest Marquette College Regulation Faculty nationwide survey pegs this group as 17% of the citizens, which is almost equivalent to the share of voters in 2016 who disliked each Hillary Clinton and Trump. Trump ended up successful this group, which broke towards him within the late levels of the marketing campaign and should have been a key consider his victory. In 2020, nonetheless, simply 3% of voters had an unfavorable opinion of each Biden and Trump, in accordance with exit polling. Trump has managed to win votes amongst individuals who say they don’t like him as an individual, however successful amongst individuals who dislike him is new terrain for Biden…. Who will win these double haters in November? Nicely, it’s not sure that both Biden or Trump will. The truth is, within the newest nationwide polls from Quinnipiac College, Marquette College and Morning Seek the advice of, Robert Kennedy Jr. wins a plurality amongst those that dislike each Biden and Trump.”

“How Democrats Can Win Anyplace and In every single place” [Frank Bruni, New York Times]. Regardless that it’s Frank Bruni, it’s not dangerous! “The specificity and element with which state-level Democrats, engaged on a smaller canvas, can painting issues, sketch options and describe successes make me marvel if Democrats can be smart to pitch extra of their insurance policies and focus extra of their energies outdoors Washington. They usually discover higher traction and make readier connections that manner. I consider Shapiro’s livestreaming of the fleet work on I-95.” Which was spectacular! Extra: “I consider many key strains from Beshear’s State of the Commonwealth remarks in January, when he superior measures concerning local weather change, financial improvement and job creation with out dwelling on medical phrases like ‘local weather change,’ ‘financial improvement’ and ‘job creation.’ He gave shout-outs to a number of firms ‘constructing the 2 largest electrical automobile battery crops on planet Earth, in Glendale, Ky.’ He famous that ‘roughly 400 Kentuckians’ had been employed. This was no fancy coverage seminar. It was a simple report card.” • Concrete materials advantages; “potholes.” This could drive the id politics NGOs nuts, not a foul factor. And so they have been weakened by layoffs. However I don’t assume it’s within the nationwide Democrats to do, and I don’t assume voters would consider them in the event that they tried it.

* * *

“Pollsters are pranking us, proper?” [Yahoo Finance]. “The American doom loop deepens…. However sorry, this isn’t Venezuela or Zimbabwe. Inflation has come down remarkably quick, and most economists assume will probably be again close to the popular stage of two% or so later this 12 months. Inflation is painful for households on a price range, however there’s no manner an 18-month spate of worth hikes explains why half of all People say they’re residing in distress. One thing’s off.” Extra: “There are lots of different polls and surveys that counsel People are way more bummed out than a comparatively stable economic system ought to warrant. Economists have puzzled over the seeming breakdown between confidence and employment. Perhaps inflation is a much more traumatic phenomenon [not to mention a million Covid deaths] than understood. Perhaps persons are frightened about different issues — crime, wars, cultural decay — that they categorical as concern concerning the economic system. Perhaps People simply hate their leaders and need to punish them by telling pollsters all the pieces sucks.” Appears believable! And: “The actual reply could also be that lots of people assume they deserve extra and so they’re annoyed they’re not getting it. It doesn’t actually matter if our total numbers are higher than anyone else’s or if this or that group is doing simply superb. We’re simply not doing adequate.” • Kudos for coming spherical to class warfare, which “economists” have a tendency to not do, even when puzzled.

Republican Funhouse

“The Shocking Takeaway From My Survey on How Trump Bought a Grip on the GOP Grassroots” [Politico]. “County chairs are influential in native GOP circles, celebration leaders who can provide the form of endorsements that candidates are keen to gather. They’re additionally nonetheless near the rank-and-file grassroots, and their shifts, I imagined, would sign the place the remainder of the celebration was going. However as an alternative, I discovered that the county chairs didn’t lead their voters. For essentially the most half, they adopted them — to Donald Trump.”

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Superstar Watch

“Taylor Swift live performance assessment in Singapore: A near-perfect celebration of the singer’s legacy so far” [Channel News Asia]. “Swift was working at 110 per cent from the get-go. Her power was infectious and it was actually onerous to look away from her iconic bedazzled Versace bodysuit that has since develop into a calling card of The Eras Tour…. As one would anticipate from Swift, her vocals have been on level. The truth is, they have been unwavering. Not as soon as throughout the three-and-a-half-hour present did Swift’s voice present any weak point.” • That is typical hagiographical protection. However “not as soon as” is unfaithful–

“TAYLOR SWIFT FANS CONCERNED OVER COUGH …” [TMZ]. “Taylor Swift followers are apparently frightened about her well being as a result of she occurred to cough onstage — which, whereas candy, speaks to how hyper-focused these loyalists actually are.” • “Occurred to” appears to not be true both–

“Fan fears for Taylor Swift after she struggles by way of Singapore present” [News.com]. “In a video shared on social media, Swift is seen repeatedly coughing and clearing her throat as she sang the track Delicate for a 55,000-strong crowd at Singapore’s Nationwide Stadium. ‘Hope she’s OK, she’s been coughing,’ the social media consumer captioned their video. Others who had been on the live performance shared that they have been involved about Swift…. After watching the video from Singapore, one fan famous that Swift even regarded a little bit ‘clammy’, with a number of questioning if she might need COVID. ‘That’s a whole lot of coughing,’ the fan wrote…. ‘Most individuals that went to the Sydney exhibits caught COVID, poor Tay Tay in all probability did too,’ wrote one other. One other fan stated she was already beginning to sound a bit ‘raspy’ on the remaining Sydney live performance. ‘Are you able to think about having the tickle cough and having to sing?’ they wrote. ‘I don’t even like coughing in my cubicle at work.’” • S-o-o-o…. Could possibly be PM2.5, I suppose, of which Southeast Asia has lots. See “Adele vs. Taylor Swift, Covid, and Leisure Trade Pandemic Insurance coverage.”

TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new as we speak; all others usually are not up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Biobot drops, conformant to Walgreen positivity information (if that’s certainly not an information artifact). Word, nonetheless, the world “below the curve,” moreover peaks. That space is bigger below Biden than below Trump, and it appears to be rising steadily if erratically.

[2] (Biobot) Regional separation re-emerges.

[3] (CDC Variants) As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information will probably be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

[4] (ER) Doesn’t assist Biobot information. “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.”

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Not flattening.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) That’s a giant drop! It might be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer stress, went and acquired examined anyhow. UPDATE Given the extraordinary and sudden drop-off, I believed I’d examine to see if the inhabitants being examined modified indirectly. Listed below are absolutely the numbers on February 14, on the fringe of the cliff:

“CDC plans to drop five-day covid isolation tips” [WaPo] (February 13, 2024).

[8] (Cleveland) Flattening, in keeping with Biobot information.

[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Now up, albeit within the rear view mirror.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) Backward revisions take away NV.1 information. JN.1 dominates completely.

Stats Watch

Banking: “If One Megabank Collapses, the US Economic system Goes With It. Ought to We Have Extra?” [Politico]. “How large ought to American banks be, and the way a lot monetary energy needs to be concentrated within the largest ones? It’s an essential query — maybe much more so now than when Wall Road crashed the economic system 15 years in the past. Since then, the 4 common megabanks that now dominate the economic system — JPMorgan Chase, Financial institution of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo — have grown considerably.” • Thanks, Obama!

Immediately’s Worry & Greed Index: 79 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 77 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 75 (Excessive Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Mar 4 at 12:37:23 PM ET.

Zeitgeist Watch

Maintain the gravy practice rolling:

Not all that completely different from droplet dogmatists; the identical drive applies throughout all of the professions, I’d say, though with completely different levels of corruption.

Class Warfare

“Unmasking a Nurse’s Journey By means of Lengthy COVID Gaslighting” [MedPage Today]. “I met with a pulmonologist for additional analysis a number of weeks later, but it surely didn’t go effectively. After explaining my signs and issues about my scan, I shared my principle that I had COVID-19 in February. He instantly downplayed the scan outcomes by shrugging and saying, ‘eh, it’s simply irritation.’ Then, in an offhanded tone, nearly jokingly, he replied, ‘Yeah, I’m within the ICU all day lengthy, intubating sufferers with sputum flying in every single place, and I haven’t caught it but, so I doubt you bought it. However we are able to do an antibody check if that can make you are feeling higher.’ I used to be speechless. He didn’t ask how I used to be uncovered. He simply took this infallible and condescending tone that someway what he did was a lot extra vital and that if he hadn’t caught it, I actually couldn’t have. Right here I used to be, regardless of my medical data, scared about what was taking place with my physique. Not figuring out if I used to be ever going to get better or if this injury was everlasting. There was so little recognized about COVID at this level, it felt completely reckless to make assumptions about what it was and wasn’t doing within the physique. It was extremely irritating to me that my well being was within the arms of a supplier who acted so nonchalantly about one thing that, to me, he clearly knew so little about. And for my issues and fears to be minimized as in the event that they weren’t essential.” • And it’s nonetheless happening.

Information of the Wired

Contact data for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are superb! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Carla:

Carla doesn’t remark, however this captures December gentle superbly. And for me, brings again so many recollections of the Midwest. Every part screams Midwest, from the roofline of the home reverse, to the sidewalks, to the bushes, to the window show itself.

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So in case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives: