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2:00PM Water Cooler 4/16/2024 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chook Tune of the Day

Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Bull Rock Rd, Essex, New York, United States.

* * *

In Case You Would possibly Miss…

(1) Kennedy on the poll in Iowa.

(2) Pilots advised to not rush (“problematic tendencies”).

(3) Gold : Now could be time to promote it.

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

The Constitutional Order (Revolt)

“Supreme Courtroom casts doubt on obstruction expenses towards a whole bunch of Jan. 6 rioters” [Los Angeles Times]. “The courtroom’s conservatives questioned whether or not the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which was aimed toward company accounting fraud, can be utilized extra broadly to prosecute those that impede “any official continuing,” together with Congress’ 2021 certification of President Biden’s election victory…. Greater than 1,200 rioters had been arrested for the Jan. 6 break-in on the Capitol….. Most had been charged with assaulting the cops who had been on obligation or with disorderly and disruptive conduct. Some had been additionally charged with carrying harmful or lethal weapons. Just a few hundred had been additionally charged with looking for to impede an official continuing.” Extra: “At difficulty is easy methods to interpret two clauses within the regulation. It states that it’s a crime if somebody ‘corruptly — alters, destroys, mutilates, or conceals a document, doc, or different object, or makes an attempt to take action, with the intent to impair the item’s integrity or availability to be used in an official continuing; or in any other case obstructs, influences, or impedes any official continuing, or makes an attempt to take action.’” • The Solicitor Normal says the 2 clauses stand alone (my studying); the Chief Justice says the second depends upon the primary.

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

RCP Ballot Averages, April 5

★ Right here this Friday’s RCP ballot. Trump remains to be up in all of the Swing States (extra right here), main with one exception: PA. I’ve highlighted it once more, (1) as a result of BIden is now up there, and (2) it’s an outlier, has been for weeks. Why isn’t Trump doing nicely there? (I’ll work out a greater means to do that, however for now: Blue dot = transfer towards Biden; purple dot = transfer towards Trump. No dot = no change (presumably as a result of state polls should not that quite a few so removed from election day).

* * *

Trump (R): “‘It’s clearly strategic’: Why Trump stored attacking judges’ households” [Politico]. “In three completely different courtroom instances over the previous six months, judges imposed gag orders that restrained the previous president from vilifying witnesses, courtroom staff and others concerned within the proceedings towards him. In every case, Trump responded by verbally attacking not solely the prosecutors and judges themselves, but additionally their relations. ‘It’s clearly strategic,’ mentioned Ty Cobb, who served as a White Home lawyer beneath Trump however has change into a frequent critic of the previous president. ‘His assaults are designed round his conventional strategy to delegitimizing the proceedings.’” • I don’t prefer it. I don’t very like Decide Merchan’s daughter working for Mother’s Genuine Campaigns both, a Democrat consulting agency. One can say that father and daughter are impartial brokers. One may additionally say that father and daughter are nodes in the identical community.

* * *

Trump (R): “Trump’s Fundraising Reveals Reliance on Oil Sector, Rich Donors” [Bloomberg]. ” Donald Trump relied on a small cadre of donors to contribute a hefty portion of his March fundraising haul, displaying the early success of his pivot to rich benefactors to finance his presidential bid…. The $23.6 million from deep-pocketed donors accounted for a considerable a part of the $65.6 million he and the Republican Occasion raised that month, the most recent disclosures to the US Federal Election Fee present… In the meantime, President Joe Biden has amassed a document conflict chest for this level in an election 12 months. Outdoors teams supporting Biden, led by his predominant tremendous political motion committee, the Future Ahead PAC, have now pledged $1 billion to help him.” • That’s actual cash.

* * *

Trump (R): Not asking for my vote (or the vote of a variety of conservatives, both):

Trump (R): Actually not asking for my vote:

A lot for MMR! Here’s a dialogue of this piece in New York Journal; Trump is quoted precisely, nevertheless it’s unclear whether or not he means (a) “Covid vaccine mandates” or (b) “vaccine mandates” typically. If (a), Trump was simply sloppy in his wording, not unknown for him. But when he’s pandering to the anti-vax faction in RFK’s base, he means (b). We will see.

* * *

“Younger Voters Are Extra Involved With the Economic system. That’s Unhealthy for Biden” [Bloomberg]. “‘The President is to decrease prices for younger Individuals — forgiving scholar debt, decreasing well being [sic] and eliminating junk charges,” Seth Schuster, a Biden marketing campaign spokesperson, mentioned by e-mail.” • I don’t know why Democrats deeply imagine that “combating” and “combating for” are an efficient trope, however apparently they do. They simply can’t give it up! Anyhow, a useful chart:

* * *

Biden (D): “It’s Not the Economic system. It’s the Pandemic” [The Atlantic]. “In our lifetime, COVID posed an unprecedented menace in each its overwhelming scope and severity; it left most Individuals unable to guard themselves and, at instances, at a loss to understand what was taking place. That meets the scientific definition of trauma: an amazing expertise during which you might be threatened with severe bodily or psychological hurt…. [T]he emotions that that [the early pandemic] expertise ignited are nonetheless very a lot alive. This could make it tough to rationally assess the state of our lives and our nation…. One treatment is for leaders to encourage remembrance whereas offering correct and reliable details about each the previous and the current. Within the early days of the pandemic, President Donald Trump mishandled the disaster and peddled misinformation about COVID. However with 2020 a traumatic blur, Trump appears to have change into the beneficiary of our collective amnesia, and Biden the repository for lingering emotional discontent…. [I]n the previous two years, [Biden], like virtually everybody else [ha ha], has largely tried to proceed as if everyone seems to be again to regular. In the meantime, American minds and hearts merely aren’t prepared—whether or not we understand it or not…. By prompting Individuals to recollect what we endured collectively, paradoxically, Biden may assist free all of us to extra absolutely expertise the current.”

Biden (D): “Joe Biden’s empathy was his superpower in 2020. Can he discover it once more in 2024?” [Doyle McManus, Los Angeles Times]. “Some days it feels as if that kindly Uncle Joe has been changed by a cranky previous pol aggravated at voters who don’t give him credit score for a robust economic system…. However a refrain of Democratic strategists say it’s the unsuitable message, primarily as a result of it’s lacking the factor that was as soon as Biden’s political superpower: empathy. ‘You possibly can’t inform individuals they’re higher off than they suppose they’re,’ mentioned Mark Mellman, a veteran political guide. ‘It’s vital to acknowledge their ache. In any other case it comes throughout as a sign that you just don’t perceive their lives.’ ‘I wouldn’t go on the market and extol the miracle of the Biden economic system,’ mentioned David Axelrod. ‘The message wants to begin with empathy and give attention to costs, which is the difficulty that issues most to voters,’ mentioned Stanley Greenberg, who helped Invoice Clinton win the presidency in 1992. In any other case, he mentioned, ‘individuals simply get angrier and angrier.’ In the course of the 2020 marketing campaign, when Individuals had been reeling from the human and financial prices of the COVID-19 pandemic, Biden spoke usually of his private historical past — his upbringing in a household of modest means, the demise of his first spouse and child daughter in a 1972 freeway crash, the 2015 demise of his son Beau — and his feeling of kinship with others who suffered losses.” • Nicely, Biden’s bought a whole bunch of 1000’s extra to really feel kinship with now!

* * *

Biden (D): “Joe Rogan reveals when he thinks the Democratic Occasion will kick Biden to the curb” [FOX]. “‘Could. I believe [Biden]’s bought till Could,’ Rogan mentioned, stunning his visitor. ‘I really feel like proper round Could they’re going to tug him.’ ‘And Newsom is available in,’ Schulz added. Rogan mentioned, ‘I believe he simply has well being issues after which the nation understands, and Newsom is gonna have his help absolutely and Kamala is gonna be like ‘I don’t even need to be president, I’m cool with being vice chairman.” ‘So Newsom runs with Kamala?’ Schulz requested. ‘Yeah, I believe so’ Rogan mentioned, ‘I don’t suppose they’ll pull Kamala,’ suggesting she shouldn’t be a legal responsibility for now ‘so long as they’ll preserve her quiet.’” • I don’t know if Kamala can smile and grit her tooth for that lengthy, although. I doubt it.

Newsom (D): “Gavin Newsom Can’t Assist Himself” [The Atlantic]. “The final paragraph: “Being round Newsom, you sense an ongoing tug between boyish and sober impulses. He can fall closely on nostalgia—and RFK quotes—whereas asserting himself as an agent of the long run. He reveres the old-school pols who mentored him whereas striving to be ingenious and distinct. It is important, Newsom advised me, ‘to take dangers and never be reckless, however preserve making an attempt issues.’ To be unique however restrained when crucial. ‘I don’t need to be by-product; is likely to be as shut as he involves codifying a management philosophy: the Roger Bannister principle of life [Bannister “didn’t know that he couldn’t”] tempered by the honored precept of ready one’s flip, if it ever comes.” • An apparent beat sweetener. The query is, why a beat sweetener now?

* * *

Kennedy (I): “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be on Iowa poll” [WHBF]. “Unbiased candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. met the requirement of 500 signatures to get on the Iowa poll. Organizers say practically a thousand individuals attended an occasion yesterday in West Des Moines. Solely 650 there signed the shape.” • Commentary:

Kennedy (I): “Robert F Kennedy Jr claims Trump had requested him to be working mate” [Guardian]. • Ugh. They hate Kennedy as a lot as they hate Trump. Commentary:

Kennedy (I): Shanahan asking for my vote, although she in all probability doesn’t comprehend it:

See NC right here on “mycelial mats” (2012).

Kennedy (I): “The Candidacy and Claims of RFK Jr.” [Rajiv Sethi]. “Kennedy believes with a excessive diploma of subjective certainty many issues which might be prone to be false, or at finest stay unsupported by the very proof he cites. I focus on one such case beneath, pertaining to all-cause mortality related to the Pfizer vaccine. However the proof is ambiguous sufficient to create doubts, and the failure of many mainstream shops and specialists to acknowledge these doubts fuels suspicion within the public at giant, making individuals receptive to exaggerated claims in the wrong way. Moreover, the overall themes that come up in Kennedy’s rhetoric—the corrupting affect of cash in politics, the folly of navy adventurism overseas, the smugness and failures of elite opinion, and the necessity for open and strong debate—will ring a bell with many citizens throughout the ideological spectrum. It’s an uphill marketing campaign however I don’t suppose that it’s doomed to failure.” • Relying on how failure and success are outlined.

* * *

“The Senate, Home, and White Home May All Change Fingers in November” [Ed Kilgore, New York Magazine]. “In case you needed to wager on what is going to occur this 12 months, the chances favor a Republican takeover of the Senate and a Democratic takeover of the Home… By no means within the historical past of the Democratic-Republican duopoly courting again to the final election previous to the Civil Warfare have each the Home and Senate flipped in reverse instructions. Sometimes the tides that pull as soon as chamber pull each. However lately a brand new geographical focus of the events has given Republicans an enormous Senate benefit in some cycles that resists nationwide tendencies… A double-flip of Home and Senate would guarantee continued divided management of the federal authorities and, given the at present excessive polarization of the events, very possible further gridlock. There’s an opportunity of one thing much more outstanding taking place in November, nonetheless: a triple flip of Home, Senate and the White Home, leaving no stone unturned. That has truly occurred as soon as in American historical past: in 1952, when the New Deal period emphatically ended with Dwight D. Eisenhower breaking a 20-year Democratic successful streak in presidential elections, whereas Republicans additionally flipped each chambers of Congress (which Democrats had narrowly maintained management of in 1950 regardless of shedding a variety of seats).”

“It’s starting to look lots like 2016” [The Hill]. “The disconnect between what’s standard with the leisure media and the Democratic Occasion and what’s standard with voters performed a major function within the 2016 election. Democratic Occasion officers trapped themselves in an echo chamber, trusting the recommendation and assurances of individuals all in the identical socioeconomic rung. They really believed their very own press and overlooked voters’ considerations. Actually, they disregarded voters’ considerations outright, even after it turned obvious Clinton was failing to attach with historically pro-Democratic voting blocs. They didn’t marketing campaign as if there was any query of who would win the election. Clinton didn’t even go to Wisconsin — not even as soon as. Consequently, Trump’s victory caught mainly everybody within the Democratic Occasion and media abruptly. Now, in 2024, Trump has an extended street forward of him, particularly contemplating that he, like Biden, polls terribly. Trump’s marketing campaign conjures up little confidence. The previous president is on the market hawking sneakers, bibles and fragrance, all whereas his surrogates panhandle on-line for donations to repay his authorized payments. However are you aware what else Trump did lately? On March 28, he flew up from Florida to attend the wake of slain NYPD Officer Jonathan Diller, who had been shot and killed throughout a visitors cease. Diller is survived by his spouse and their one-year-old son. Throughout Diller’s wake, throughout city, Biden and his marketing campaign had been placing the ending touches on a glitzy, star-studded marketing campaign fundraiser, the place they yukked it up later that night with Stephen Colbert and Lizzo. For a mere $100,000, attendees may have their footage taken with Biden and former Democratic presidents Barack Obama and Invoice Clinton.” • Similar cope with Trump at Chick-fil-A in Atlanta. Keep in mind the individuals who cheered his motorcade when Trump drove by on the best way to his arraignment?

Our Famously Free Press

This one is actually enjoyable to observe with the sound down:

The facial expressions! The physique language!

Republican Funhouse

Hmm:

Pandemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

* * *

Maskstravaganza

I don’t know why Trump’s Surgeon Normal reveals better integrity and braveness and both of Biden’s two CDC Administrators, however right here we’re:

Sequelae: Covid

“American Air Pilots Cite ‘Vital’ Soar in Security Points” [MSN]. “The union for American Airways Group Inc. pilots warned members to be vigilant amid a ‘vital spike’ in safety- and maintenance-related issues on the service. The Allied Pilots Affiliation cited ‘problematic tendencies’ in a memo despatched April 13, together with cases of instruments like a hammer being left in airplane wheel wells and an growing variety of collisions between plane whereas they’re being towed. The union, which represents about 15,000 pilots, implored its members to keep away from speeding whereas doing their jobs and to not be pressured into doing something unsafe…. The union cited different issues, equivalent to growing cases of apparatus being left in sterile areas the place planes pull into gates and defective paperwork documenting when broken plane are ferried to a different location.” • Feels like lack of government perform resulting from (repeated) Covid an infection, to me. See right here at NC for one pilot’s view.

* * *

Lambert right here: I used to be starting to suppose that every one my knowledge was drying up… Then most of them got here by means of, abruptly. Numerous stars right now!

TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new right now; all others should not up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out at a degree far above valleys beneath Trump. Not an incredible victory. Observe additionally the realm “beneath the curve,” apart from taking a look at peaks. That space is bigger beneath Biden than beneath Trump, and it appears to be rising steadily if inconsistently.

[2] (Biobot) No backward revisons….

[3] (CDC Variants) As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge shall be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

[4] (ER) CDC appears to have killed this off, because the hyperlink is damaged, I believe in favor of this factor. I’ll attempt to affirm. UPDATE Sure, go away it to CDC to kill a web page, after which announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC ought to clarify the place to go to get equal knowledge, if any. I favored the ER knowledge, as a result of it appeared actually onerous to sport.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Seems like a really gradual leveling off to a non-zero baseline, to me. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it seems like “endemicity,” however to me it seems like one other tranche of lethality.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Flattening.

[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Nonetheless down.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) JN.1 dominates totally.

[11] Seems just like the Instances isn’t reporting demise knowledge any extra? Perhaps I would like to return to The Economist….

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Industrial Manufacturing” [Trading Economics]. “Industrial Manufacturing in the USA flattened year-on-year in March 2024, following a downwardly revised 0.3% fall in February. Utilities had been down 3.1% and mining declined 2% whereas manufacturing rose 0.8%.”

Housing: “United States Housing Begins” [Trading Economics]. “Housing begins within the US plunged 14.7% month-over-month to an annualized fee of 1.321 million in March 2024, reversing from an upwardly revised 1.549 million degree in February and nicely beneath forecasts of 1.48 million.”

* * *

The Economic system: Issues are going nice:

(I assume individuals solely promote gold after they anticipate onerous instances, or are experiencing them.)

* * *

In the present day’s Concern & Greed Index: 39 Concern (earlier shut: 41 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 54 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Apr 16 at 1:57:16 PM ET. World Warfare III is dangerous for enterprise.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 187. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Chook flu not a priority?

Information of the Wired

I’m not feeling wired right now.

* * *

Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are tremendous! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you would like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From GS:

GS writes: “Hanging carnivorous Pitcher Plant (specimen from Phillipines), Flecker Gardens, Cairns QLD Australia.”

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So in case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a relentless trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets:

Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

In case you hate PayPal, you’ll be able to e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I gives you instructions on easy methods to ship a test. Thanks!

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