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2:00PM Water Cooler 4/19/2024 | bare capitalism

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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Affected person readers, it is a journey day for me, I’m very drained, and I’m penning this from an unlimited transportation edifice after a liquid lunch. So please forgive any solecisms or incoherencies. –lambert P.S. Plus, I’m urgent submit whereas I nonetheless have connectivity, so this might be just a little quick.

* * *

Hen Music of the Day

Rose-breasted Grosbeak, Finger Lakes Nationwide Forest, Tompkins, New York, United States. 26 minutes of Grosbeak insanity. Seize a cup of espresso! And due to all of the birders who left feedback yesterday.

* * *

In Case You Would possibly Miss…

(1) Naptime for Donald…

(2) Pennsylvania battleground;

(3) Columbia pro-Palestine demonstration.

* * *

Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

* * *

2024

Lower than a 12 months to go!

★ RCP Ballot Averages, April 19:

Right here this Friday’s RCP polling. Trump continues to be doing very properly in nearly all of the Swing States (extra right here), main with one exception: PA. Neglect all of the arithmetic, and take a look at PA as a take a look at of the Trump marketing campaign’s primary competence. What are they doing to repair this? (I’ll work out a greater solution to current this, however for now: Blue dot = transfer towards Biden; purple dot = transfer towards Trump. No dot = no change (presumably as a result of state polls should not that quite a few so removed from election day).

* * *

Trump (R): Strategic napping:

Nonsense. Trump is a “again row child,” in Chris Arnade’s formulation (or enjoying at being one). The entrance row youngsters on the DNC don’t get it.

Trump (R): Does quoting different individuals violate the gag order?

Maybe not within the public thoughts (“He by no means stated it! This different man stated it!”)

Trump (R): “Jury of 12 Is Seated in Trump Felony Trial” [New York Times]. Juror #1: “works in gross sales” (West Harlem); #2: “works in finance” (Hell’s Kitchen); #3 “works within the authorized area” (Chelsea); #4: “an engineer” (Higher West Aspect); #5: “works in schooling” (Harlem); #6: “works in expertise” (Chelsea): #7: “works within the authorized area” (Higher East Aspect); #8: “labored in finance” (Higher East Aspect); #9: “works in an academic setting” (Higher East Aspect); #10: “businessman” (Murray Hill); #11 “product supervisor” (Higher Manhattan); and #12 “works in well being care” (Higher East Aspect). • Spot the lone holdout! Critically, 4 from the Higher East Aspect? What’re the chances? Additionally, I don’t assume the 2 finance individuals might be too pleased with Trump’s, let’s face it, shenanigans. even when compliance is for thee and never for me.

Trump (R): “2 of Trump’s jurors are attorneys. Would they acquit on a technicality?” [Politico]. “Of the seven jurors chosen for Trump’s hush cash trial up to now, one is a civil litigator at a big white-shoe legislation agency, and one other is a company lawyer at a agency targeted on start-ups and enterprise capital…. One of many attorneys on Trump’s jury, the civil litigator, signaled throughout jury choice that he was properly conscious of that concern. ‘I’m a litigator,’ he stated, ‘so I take the legislation significantly, and I take judges’ directions very significantly.’” • This ran in Hyperlinks this morning, however I wish to file away the specialities of the 2 attorneys.

Trump (R): In fact, this isn’t a “hush cash” case (see NC right here). But when it have been:

Who is aware of? Possibly we’ll get fortunate and Bragg will disclose his principle of the case on Monday!

Trump (R): Attention-grabbing instance of Trump’s “native campaigning” in Manhattan:


* * *

Kennedy (I): Earlier than you click on via, it’s pay-per-view:


* * *

“Democrats start to outpace Republicans in fundraising for key Home races” [NBC]. “Democratic candidates outraised Republicans in nearly each some of the aggressive seats within the race for the Home, in accordance with new fundraising stories filed this week, a setback for Republicans who had been hoping their candidates have been turning a nook…. Ten of the 11 Republican incumbents in races rated as “toss ups” by The Cook dinner Political Report with Amy Walter have been outraised by at the very least one Democratic challenger…. Republican incumbents who have been outraised embrace: Reps. David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani of Arizona; John Duarte, David Valadao, Mike Garcia and Ken Calvert of California; Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey; and Mike Lawler, Marc Molinaro and Anthony D’Esposito of New York…. And Republican candidates have been additionally outraised in two different ‘toss-up’ seats being vacated by Democratic incumbents in Michigan.”

* * *

PA: Video from Trump rally at Schenksville. described yesterday:

Spectacular. Not dispositive, in fact; consider Sanders.

PA: Organizing PA:

We’ll see. I don’t see how the bottom struggle beat the air struggle if the bottom struggle doesn’t have the funds for — or a candidate who can’t rally the troops as a result of he’s in courtroom. (I’d speculate from yesterday that lots of these truckers are prone to be Latino, a demographic the place Trump is gaining. Considering when it comes to id politics, it’s might be a reasonably neat trick to get the Amish and Latino truckers lined up on the identical aspect.)

PA: “Biden v. Trump: The Battle for Pennsylvania Is On” [Philadelphia Gay News]. “When Trump was in Schnecksville, the place a big crowd waited in line for 3 hours to see him, Biden was coping with a doable world disaster. Iran had attacked Israel in a retaliatory missile and drone strike in response to Israel’s earlier assault on an Iranian embassy, taking out Hamas figures tied to Iran. That juxtaposition made for some unusual moments on the Schnecksville occasion when the gang chanted ‘Genocide Joe,’ a rallying cry normally related to far-left pro-Palestinian protesters. In response, Trump stated, ‘They’re not unsuitable, they’re not unsuitable. He’s carried out all the things unsuitable.’” There’s Trump’s A/B testing, proper there. Extra: “That chanting highlighted a tough situation for Biden that may possible comply with him all through the first and presumably into November. These chants might have been ignored by the Biden camp, which was making an attempt to comprise an more and more rogue Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, however it was not ignored by both the media nor leftists themselves, lots of whom are contemplating methods to vote ‘uncommitted” within the Pennsylvania main April 23.” • Kind of wonderful to see “Genocide Joe” “bounce the species barrier” like that; and so quick!

PA: “A Biden Victory in November Turns On This State” [New York Times]. “As Mr. Biden works to promote voters on his accomplishments, and himself, he should do it throughout wildly totally different elements of Pennsylvania. Profitable right here means enjoying in all places, say the state’s political fingers — just about all of whom can recite the vote margins a Democrat must purpose for in Philadelphia, its collar counties, Allegheny (dwelling to Pittsburgh), this western enclave, that space of the Lehigh Valley and even the ‘T counties’ operating up the middle and throughout the highest of the state that sometimes go Republican. Boiled down, the blue-team blueprint is: run up the numbers in and round Philly, do properly in Allegheny and different choose spots and maintain down Republicans’ margins of victory within the extra rural areas. ‘You possibly can’t depend on the locations historically pleasant to us. You must shut the margins in locations we’re not going to win,’ stated Lt. Gov. Austin Davis, a Democrat. Take the reliably purple counties of Westmoreland, within the Pittsburgh area, and rural Northumberland, he supplied: ‘You possibly can lose 60-40, however you’ll be able to’t lose 70-30. It makes an enormous distinction.’ ‘Margins matter!’ confirmed State Consultant Malcolm Kenyatta, who’s operating statewide for auditor normal. That is very true if turnout in Philadelphia will not be so sizzling — which, Democrats say, has been the case for a number of years.”

* * *

Republican Funhouse

Very humorous:

I can’t kind which Ukrainian ox is gored by MTG’s modification, however it could be amusing if it have been the Banderites.

Democrats en Déshabillé

The subsequent Democrat Mama Bear is sweet however I’m not shopping for it:

Tne get together of lawfare and the Censorship Industrial Advanced doesn’t have standing to defend “our democracy.”

Realignment and Legitimacy

Submitting the Columbia protests right here, as a result of shades of 1968. That is in no sense exhaustive!

Columbia (1): Cornel West (and never anybody else):

Columbia (2): DEI doing what it’s speculated to do:

Columbia (3): LIfe within the Huge Home:

Pandemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

* * *

Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

* * *

Airborne Transmission: Monkeypox

“Mpox, smallpox and the growing menace of orthopoxvirus epidemics” [Global Biosecurity]. “We ought to be on excessive alert for orthopoxvirus epidemics due to massive, ongoing epidemics of mpox within the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Mpox has been resurgent within the African continent in international locations like Nigeria and DRC since 2017, the place the an infection is endemic in animals and may be zoonotic or human-to-human transmitted… In actual fact, smallpox and mpox are respiratory viruses, and mpox has been recognized in ambient air.” • I’m certain Saggy Blues will do the job, completely.

* * *

TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

LEGEND

1) ★ for charts new right this moment; all others should not up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out at a degree far above valleys underneath Trump. Not an amazing victory. Notice additionally the world “underneath the curve,” moreover peaks. That space is bigger underneath Biden than underneath Trump, and it appears to be rising steadily if erratically.

[2] (Biobot) No backward revisons….

[3] (CDC Variants) As of Could 11, genomic surveillance knowledge might be reported biweekly, primarily based on the provision of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

[4] (ER) CDC appears to have killed this off, because the hyperlink is damaged, I feel in favor of this factor. I’ll attempt to verify. UPDATE Sure, depart it to CDC to kill a web page, after which announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC ought to clarify the place to go to get equal knowledge, if any. I preferred the ER knowledge, as a result of it appeared actually onerous to sport.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flattening out to a non-zero baseline. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it appears like “endemicity,” however to me it appears like one other tranche of lethality.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.

[8] (Cleveland) Slight uptrend?

[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Nonetheless down.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) JN.1 dominates completely.

[11] Appears to be like just like the Occasions isn’t reporting dying knowledge any extra? Possibly I would like to return to The Economist….

Stats Watch

There are not any official statistics of curiosity right this moment.

* * *

At this time’s Worry & Greed Index: 32 Worry (earlier shut: 34 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 46 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Apr 19 at 12:03:21 PM ET.

Information of the Wired

“Up within the air: Presence and assortment of DNA from air and air conditioner models” [Electrophoresis] “Outcomes of this pilot research present that human DNA may be collected on air conditioner unit surfaces and from the air, with air samples representing the more moderen occupation whereas air conditioner models exhibiting historic use of the room.” • Now right here’s a cheerful thought!

* * *

Contact data for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a verify if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of crops. Greens are advantageous! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Desert Canine:

Desert Canine writes: “After the photograph I took this morning of the snow wooden pile and tree, this afternoon I used to be strolling round in a fierce wind and located one thing my accomplice snuck within the floor on the south aspect of my doghouse final 12 months evidently.” Usually I attempt to preserve the Plant queue in some tough order, however I felt this was newsworthy. (Good woodpile that was, too!)

* * *

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So when you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get anxious. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets:

Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

If you happen to hate PayPal, you’ll be able to electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I will provide you with instructions on the way to ship a verify. Thanks!

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