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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Affected person readers, this Water Cooler has just a bit one thing in most classes, apart from the Covid charts, the place there are quite a few updates (together with a complete new variant, KP.2). Now I must hustle alongside and end up a publish on the Gaza encampments. –lambert
Fowl Track of the Day
American Robin, Muskoka, Ontario, Canada.
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
2024
Lower than a yr to go!
★RCP Ballot Averages, April 26:
Nationwide outcomes are nonetheless transferring Biden’s means. However all of the Swing States (extra right here) are transferring Trump’s means, though in tiny increments. It’s arduous to attribute this consistency to mere probability. “All” with one exception: Pennsylvania. If Susie Wiles is such a mind genius, why isn’t she fixing this?
* * * “‘Lots must go improper for Biden to lose’: can Allan Lichtman predict the 2024 election?” [Guardian]. Solely in August. Lichtman’s well-deservedly well-known keys. Readers might care to evaluate:
They got here up with 13 true/false questions and a call rule: if six or extra keys went in opposition to the White Home occasion, it might lose. If fewer than six went in opposition to it, it might win. These are the 13 keys, as summarised by [American University’s] web site:
1. Get together mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent occasion holds extra seats within the US Home of Representatives than after the earlier midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no such thing as a critical contest for the incumbent occasion nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent occasion candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third occasion: There is no such thing as a vital third occasion or impartial marketing campaign.
5. Quick-term financial system: The financial system shouldn’t be in recession throughout the election marketing campaign.
6. Lengthy-term financial system: Actual per capita financial development throughout the time period equals or exceeds imply development throughout the earlier two phrases.
7. Coverage change: The incumbent administration results main modifications in nationwide coverage.
8. Social unrest: There is no such thing as a sustained social unrest throughout the time period.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by main scandal.
10. Overseas/army failure: The incumbent administration suffers no main failure in overseas or army affairs.
11. Overseas/army success: The incumbent administration achieves a significant success in overseas or army affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent occasion candidate is charismatic or a nationwide hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The difficult occasion candidate shouldn’t be charismatic or a nationwide hero.
Extra on Lichtman:
He’s prone to make his pronouncement on the 2024 presidential election in early August. He notes that Biden already has the incumbency key in his favour and, having crushed token challengers within the Democratic main, has the competition key too. “That’s two keys off the highest. Meaning six extra keys must fall to foretell his defeat. Lots must go improper for Biden to lose.”
• With Biden, quite a bit can go improper. “Don’t underestimate Joe’s skill to fuck issues up.” —Obama
Republican Funhouse
“Kristi Noem defends canine slaying as ‘accountable’” [Politico]. “The story of Noem capturing and killing her 14-month-old pet has taken a toll on the potential VP choose’s public picture.” • See NC from 2012: “Animal Crackers.”
Pandemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
Prevention
“Can Neosporin Defend You From Getting COVID-19?” [Time]. N=12. “A small examine just lately revealed in PNAS presents an analogous, if lower-tech, thought. Coating the within of the nostril with the over-the-counter antibiotic ointment Neosporin appears to set off an immune response which will assist the physique repel respiratory viruses like people who trigger COVID-19 and the flu, the examine suggests. The analysis raises the concept Neosporin might function an ‘additional layer’ of safety in opposition to respiratory diseases, on prime of present instruments like vaccines and masks, says examine co-author Akiko Iwasaki, an immunobiologist on the Yale College of Medication and one of many U.S.’ main nasal vaccine researchers. The examine builds upon a few of Iwasaki’s prior analysis—which has proven that comparable antibiotics can set off doubtlessly protecting immune modifications within the physique—but it surely’s nonetheless preliminary, she cautions. For the brand new examine, her group had 12 folks apply Neosporin inside their nostrils twice a day for every week, whereas one other seven folks used Vaseline for comparability. At a number of factors throughout the examine, the researchers swabbed the individuals’ noses and ran PCR assessments to see what was occurring inside. They discovered that Neosporin—and particularly one in all its lively elements, the antibiotic neomycin sulfate—appears to stimulate receptors within the nostril that ‘are fooled into considering there’s a viral an infection’ and in flip create ‘a barrier that’s put up in opposition to any virus,’ Iwasaki explains. In principle, she says, which means it might defend in opposition to a variety of various infections.” • Vaseline was the placebo. Looks like a low-cost high-gain no-brainer (modulo points with antibiotic stewardship).
“NoriZite™ Nasal Spray” (commercial) [Birmingham Biotech]. “The formulation has been engineered to “plume” moderately than “jet” when utilized with a typical nasal spray applicator, providing greater than 6x the protection of normal sprays in opposition to airborne virus particles, allergens, pollen, mud, and extra. Iota-Carrageenan (a pure polymer derived from purple seaweed) & Gellan gum (a polysaccharide gel that coats & retains virus, so they don’t go additional down the respiratory tract).” • “Gumming up the works” with Iota-Carrageenan is a tenable mechanism, utilized by others. What pursuits me is that merchandise like this are nonetheless popping out (notice worldwide distribution). Have to be a requirement for them. For some purpose.
Elite Maleficence
At this level, the insistence on handwashing appears nearly Freudian (“All of the perfumes of Arabia won’t sweeten this little hand”):
🚨The extra they discuss handwashing being ‘critically essential’ the extra they distract you from the truth that these viruses are caught principally by inhalation of airborne particles.
⏬You possibly can resolve for your self if that is malice or incompetence, or incompetent malice. https://t.co/k0UZFnHZWN pic.twitter.com/pCFkDR4lsc— tern (@1goodtern) April 29, 2024
Then once more, each WHO and CDC have total departments dedicated to handwashing. So there’s that.
TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new as we speak; all others should not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out at a degree far above valleys beneath Trump. Not an excellent victory. Word additionally the realm “beneath the curve,” in addition to taking a look at peaks. That space is bigger beneath Biden than beneath Trump, and it appears to be rising steadily if erratically.
[2] (Biobot) No backward revisons….
[3] (CDC Variants) KP.2 has entered the chat, not less than within the mannequin. As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information will likely be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears to be like like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
[4] (ER) CDC appears to have killed this off, because the hyperlink is damaged, I believe in favor of this factor. I’ll attempt to affirm. UPDATE Sure, depart it to CDC to kill a web page, after which announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC ought to clarify the place to go to get equal information, if any. I favored the ER information, as a result of it appeared actually arduous to recreation.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flattening out to a non-zero baseline. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it seems like “endemicity,” however to me it seems like one other tranche of lethality.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Slight uptrend.
[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Uptick.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants) JN.1 dominates totally. And no point out of KP.2
[11] Appears to be like just like the Instances isn’t reporting loss of life information any extra? Perhaps I would like to return to The Economist….
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Federal Reserve Financial institution of Dallas’ common enterprise exercise index for manufacturing in Texas held comparatively regular.”
Manufacturing: “Boeing: Lifeless whistleblower warned of security breaches” [BBC]. “The transcript of Mr Barnett’s deposition has now been launched by his attorneys. The prolonged doc runs to greater than 140 pages…. Mr Barnett’s lawsuit is predicted to proceed. It will likely be taken ahead by his mom Vicky Stokes and his brother Rodney Barnett as representatives of his property. The case is now anticipated to go to trial in September.” • Good.
Manufacturing: “Boeing’s Money Aim Is $10 Billion in Lifeless Weight” [Bloomberg]. “[Soon-to-be-ex-CEO] Calhoun labored at GE for almost three many years, and his refusal to again down from Boeing’s money movement goal is paying homage to the can-kicking by one other GE CEO, Jeff Immelt, on a a lot maligned pledge to generate $2 in earnings per share in 2018. That forecast appeared out of attain by 2016 as plunging crude costs pressured GE’s oil and fuel operations and industrial demand extra broadly, however Immelt held onto the goal anyway, saying the corporate might make up for the shortfall with value cuts and share buybacks. The period of time he spent speaking in regards to the goal grew exponentially, and so did analysts’ doubts that GE might really pull it off. Amidst this pursuit of an in the end arbitrary quantity, money movement challenges in GE’s energy enterprise festered, as did an enormous insurance coverage cash pit. Immelt by no means explicitly pulled the goal earlier than he stepped down in 2017. GE ended up lacking it by a mile. There’s a lesson in that saga for Boeing and Calhoun: if a CEO has to consistently defend a monetary goal, it’s most likely not serving the supposed function.”
At the moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 44 Worry (earlier shut: 41 Worry) [CNN]. One week in the past: 38 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Apr 29 at 1:16:25 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes down one on Satanism. “The shortage of exercise has downgraded this class” [Rapture Ready]. Document Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 187. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is sweet.) • Fowl flu not a priority, apparently. And I hate even to go right here, however the “Tribulation Temple” class is a mere 3. If Tribulation Temple = Third Temple = no matter temple it’s that the Purple Heifer loons wish to construct, then the Rapture Index is making a name, and it’s saying “Don’t fear in regards to the Purple Heifers.”
The Conservatory
A superb band:
A nice band:
“Sheet Music: the Authentic Problematic Pop?” [JSTOR]. “How do you deal with the very fact the content material will be so problematic, racist and xenophobic? Each time we have now these collections with dangerous content material, we add a content material warning. Particularly, with instructing with the gathering, every time I’m instructing in particular person with these collections, it’s all the time a dialog we have now with the scholars, to place it into context, discuss why we have now it. We encourage them to take breaks, or cease engaged on it in the event that they encounter one thing they’d moderately not work with. I typically must take breaks after I work with these collections. Now we have a reparative description working group the place we’re taking a look at archival information and searching on the language that was used. Generally it’s the supplier’s description, or the title of the work itself that’s racist. We’re discovering methods to take a look at these information and restore the descriptions and language that the folks described in our collections used to explain themselves, which in fact modifications over time. We’ve completed a big challenge to establish any of the minstrel music within the assortment. Minstrelsy was a very racist type of fashionable leisure from 1820 to round 1920. Now we have this huge description on our Lester Levy web page, our principal assortment, to explain what our course of was, why we undertook it, and what the outcomes had been.” • I suppose. However what fragile (and presentist) folks; that “dangerous” phrase actually grates on me. I imply, I do know it’s not their responsbility, and admittedly I all the time welcome a scholarly notice, “harms” — and censorship — apart, however holy moley, if you’d like “harms” go over and straighten out mainstream macro.
Guillotine Watch
“Tech bros love speaking about microdosing – however the legality of psychedelics is a messy gray space” [Independent]. “‘[M]icrodosing’ has additionally turn out to be a standard observe in Silicon Valley, with high-profile executives resembling Elon Musk and Google co-founder Sergey Brin talking brazenly about their use of ketamine and psilocybin respectively.” • Good to know main capital allocation selections are being made by tripped-out bros, little question straight from the cuddle puddle. Why haven’t the Chinese language considered this?
Information of the Wired
I’m not feeling wired as we speak.
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