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By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Chicken Music of the Day
Home Wren (Northern). Frog Hole, Walla Walla, Washington, United States. “This chicken was singing each morning earlier than daybreak, outdoors my house.”
In Case You May Miss…
(1) Swing states replace.
(2) employment state of affairs.
(3) Crocheting and knitting, with musical accompaniments.
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Lower than a yr to go!
Right here is Friday’s RCP ballot. Trump remains to be up in all of the Swing States (extra right here), however nonetheless main with one exception: PA. I’ve highlighted it once more, (1) as a result of BIden is now up there, and (2) it’s an outlier, has been for weeks. Why isn’t Trump doing nicely there? (I’ll work out a greater method to do that, however for now: Blue dot = transfer towards Biden; crimson dot = transfer towards Trump. No statistical signficance to any of it, and state polls are dangerous anyhow!
* * * Trump (R): “When Trump wants money, a California financial institution and certainly one of its high shareholders have come to the rescue” [Associated Press]. Don Hankey and Axos financial institution as soon as extra. “Over the previous two years, Axos Financial institution, in addition to its largest particular person shareholder, California billionaire Don Hankey, have collectively prolonged greater than $500 million in financing that has benefited Trump, data present. The money inflow has helped Trump to repay money owed and pocket a tidy revenue whereas escaping from a lease on his money-losing former resort in Washington. It additionally lined a $175 million down cost he made this week on an eye-popping civil fraud penalty. Axos Financial institution officers in addition to Hankey have stated that the offers provide them a monetary upside. However as Trump once more pursues the White Home, ethics and authorized specialists query what the lenders could ask in return if there’s a future Trump presidency, contemplating even small regulatory modifications can translate into hundreds of thousands of {dollars} in earnings.” • As normal Trump offers direct, as an alternative of working by way of straws….
* * * Trump (R): “‘The nuclear button’: Particular counsel might search removing of choose in Trump labeled docs case, attorneys warn” [NBC]. “Particular counsel Jack Smith might quickly search to have the choose presiding over former President Donald Trump’s labeled paperwork case recused, prosecutors and protection attorneys warn, describing Smith as being pressed to the ‘breaking level’ over arguments his workplace stated might taint a trial irrevocably. Smith faulted Choose Aileen Cannon in a scathing rebuke for seeming to take at face worth Trump’s ‘basically flawed’ declare round a president’s official and private data when she requested each side to place forth competing variations of directions for jurors within the case and stated her request would ‘distort’ the trial. Smith indicated in that submitting that if Cannon dominated towards federal prosecutors, this may very well be a set off for an enchantment to the eleventh Circuit that would take away her from the case. ‘He’s near pushing the nuclear button,’ stated Palm Seashore County State Lawyer David Aronberg. ‘It’s a excessive burden to succeed in, and it’s hardly ever accomplished, however her proposed jury directions could have pushed him to the breaking level.’” • One other method of claiming “breaking level” is “over-reach,” as Smith did when attempting McAuliffe. (And since when does a prosector decide what does and doesn’t “distort” a trial?)
* * * Trump (R): “1 in 5 GOP main voters preserve bucking Trump. What does it imply?” [WaPo]. “Almost 1 in 5 GOP main voters throughout 4 contests Tuesday voted for an possibility apart from the presumptive nominee. That’s about the identical proportion that voted towards him on the final massive main day, March 19…. In case you exclude low-turnout caucuses and deep-red Southern states, Trump is ceding a mean of 20 % since Tremendous Tuesday.” • Useful map (the states are laid out as they might be on a map of america, although it takes a minute to see that):
I’ve highlighted the swing states in yellow. I don’t suppose individuals who don’t vote for the Republican on main day essentially vote Republican on election day, but when I had been the Trump marketing campaign, I’d be involved about MI (32% (!!)), and NC (26%). PA and NV are but to come back.
* * * Biden (D): “The Economic system Is OK. Biden’s Economic system, Not So A lot” [The American Prospect]. “By a 20-point margin (54 % to 34 %), the [Wall Street Journal] swing-staters [polled] most well-liked Trump to Biden on the query of dealing with the economic system. The place this actually turns into fascinating, although, is of their responses to their very own states’ economies. Requested to evaluate the situation of the economic system in their very own state after which within the nation as an entire, respondents in every of the seven states replied that their very own state’s economic system was in much better form than the nation’s. Those that rated their very own state’s economic system as “not so good” or “poor” did so at charges that ranged from 11 factors to 33 factors decrease than their assessments of the nation’s total economic system. At one degree, this shouldn’t come as a shock: It considerably echoes different latest polls through which People have rated their very own households’ financial situation to be notably higher than the nation’s. Neither the swing states’ precise financial situations nor the partisan make-up of state authorities appears to have had a lot impact on the respondents’ solutions. … However when all that discounting is completed, it’s nonetheless obvious that the affiliation of Biden with financial situations brings down the evaluation of these situations. Biden could but be capable of mitigate this by stressing his help for well-liked progressive financial insurance policies, and the continuation of the restoration (through which his precise report is nothing wanting stellar) could assist some, too. However taking a look at this polling means that if he’s to defeat Trump, abortion and Trump himself are the themes he most must sound.”
* * * PA: “Democrats ought to be jittery about Pennsylvania voter registration tendencies” [Washington Examiner]. “Blue-collar voters grew to become prepared to go away the social gathering altogether, particularly after Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) made it environment friendly when he carried out a brand new measure that allowed residents getting driver’s licenses and ID playing cards to be opted into their voter registration. Regardless of Republican lawmakers bellyaching about Shapiro’s transfer, within the first month alone, 3,194 Democrats, 4,052 independents, and a whopping 7,657 Republicans have registered. In case you are doing the maths, as many Republicans registered within the state as Democrats and independents collectively, and even unbiased registration outpaced the Democrats by almost 900. In July of final yr, Democrats held a 480,000 voter registration benefit over Republicans, however by Oct. 10, that margin had fallen to 446,467. And the development has continued within the six months since then.”
* * * “No Labels formally drops out of the 2024 race. The reality is that they had been by no means in it.” [USA Today]. “No Labels dropped plans Thursday for a so-called unity ticket, which was anticipated to be a average Republican operating for president with an equally average Democrat as vp.” That’s a rattling disgrace. Extra: “The animosity for No Labels was typically rooted within the group’s secrecy, working as a nonprofit with hundreds of thousands of {dollars} from donors it refused to determine.” • Perhaps the names of the donors are within the pocket of Joe Lieberman’s funeral go well with, in his coffin. Nonetheless, they stored the grift going for fourteen years, and that’s one thing. Anyhow, they are stated to have poll entry in 21 states, and now all that’s all wasted. Unhappy.
* * * “Inside a G.O.P. Plan to Encourage Early Voting Regardless of Trump’s Assaults” [New York Times]. “Inside a sprawling compound in Phoenix, leaders of the influential conservative group Turning Level Motion had been hatching plans to repair what they see as a mortal menace to the Republican Occasion: its voters’ avoidance of early voting, particularly by mail, because the 2020 election.” • IMNSHO, “early voting” is flawed for 3 causes: (1) It reinforces social gathering loyalty, the very last thing we’d like; (2) it makes it unattainable for voters to alter their minds having voted early, in response to a gaffe, a coverage change, or “occasions, expensive boy, occasions”; (3) in precept, your complete citizens ought to vote based mostly on the identical set of knowledge, and that’s solely potential when the vote takes place at one time.
Our Famously Free Press
“The Washington press corps doesn’t have a freaking clue” [Dan Froomkin, Press Watch]. “Being the lead author for the New York Time’s signature On Politics e-newsletter is among the most influential jobs within the trade today, and the e-mail that popped up in my inbox asserting the newest rent for that job – a Boston Globe reporter named Jess Bidgood who had beforehand labored for the Instances — made it painfully clear that she is completely clueless in regards to the subject she is now protecting, and deliberately so. Provided a chance to clarify what she discovered notably compelling in regards to the coming election, Bidgood didn’t speak about how the Republican Occasion has succumbed to the acute Christian far-right. She didn’t speak about how Trump was a hateful, harmful demagogue. She didn’t even point out the destiny of democracy or the rule of legislation. Let me be very clear right here: Whether or not or not the nation succumbs to fascism is a helluva political story irrespective of how you are feeling about it. A Trump victory would profoundly change how authorities and justice are practiced. In case you don’t perceive that, you’re a wildly incompetent political reporter.” • Froomkin was one of many unique bloggers at WaPo, again within the day, and so they dinged him for it, so I’m reluctant to only totally trash the man. However I don’t see how anybody can take a look at the Censorship Industrial Complicated and never see parts of fascism. Fascism isn’t famous for ideological consistency; quite, it is a gigantic smorgasbord of badness, from which each events can choose and select (I don’t very similar to threatening election employees, for instance). It’s additionally completely cheap to see the post-Reconstruction South as fascist — the Nazis got here to review Jim Crow, in any case — or, for that matter, a number of the nastier parts of the Wilson Administration (like, say, the Espionage Act). This imaginative and prescient is, actually, bleaker than the view that electing one social gathering solves the issue.
Pandemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the handle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reviews); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
H5N1
“Chicken flu dairy cow outbreak widens in Ohio, Kansas, New Mexico” [Reuters]. ” Chicken flu has contaminated a dairy herd in Ohio for the primary time and was detected in extra herds in Kansas and New Mexico, in accordance with the U.S. authorities, increasing an outbreak in cows that has raised issues about potential dangers to people…. The unfold to an rising variety of species and its widening geographic attain have raised the dangers of people being contaminated, the top of the World Group for Animal Well being stated on Thursday. Texas officers reported on Monday {that a} farm employee examined constructive, and the one symptom was eye irritation. The U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention considers the chance of chicken flu for people to be low.” • I don’t get pleasure from this, and I hope it sputters out. That stated, we’re coping with the CDC right here, which emerged from Covid the identical, or worse, because it went in to Covid. No presumption of competence or honesty is reasonble.
TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new right this moment; all others should not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out on the degree of earlier Trump peaks. Not an awesome victory. Word additionally the realm “below the curve,” apart from taking a look at peaks. That space is bigger below Biden than below Trump, and it appears to be rising steadily if erratically.
[2] (Biobot) Backward revisions, I hate them.
[3] (CDC Variants) As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information will probably be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
[4] (ER) CDC appears to have killed this off, because the hyperlink is damaged, I believe in favor of this factor. I’ll attempt to affirm. UPDATE Sure, go away it to CDC to kill a web page, after which announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC ought to clarify the place to go to get equal information, if any. I preferred the ER information, as a result of it appeared actually arduous to recreation…
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Appears like a really gradual leveling off to a non-zero baseline, to me.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and information supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Flattening.
[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Now up, albeit within the rear view mirror.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants) JN.1 dominates totally.
Stats Watch
Employment State of affairs: “United States Unemployment Charge” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment price in america dipped to three.8% in March 2024 from the earlier month’s two-year excessive of three.9% and shocking market expectations, which had forecasted the speed to stay unchanged. The variety of unemployed people decreased by 29,000 to six.4 million, whereas employment ranges noticed a major surge, rising by 498,000 to succeed in 161.5 million. Moreover, the labor pressure participation price elevated to 62.7% from a close to one-year low of 62.5% within the previous intervals, and the employment-population ratio climbed to 60.3% from 60.1%. Regardless of latest coverage tightening measures by the Federal Reserve, the unemployment price has remained inside a slim vary of three.7% to three.9% since August 2023, suggesting the labor market stays sturdy.”
Finance: “A Lego Mannequin of Monetary Capitalism” [ASOMOCO]. “Such a change, through which we change cash for promises-for-future-money, is named monetary change, and the monetary markets are the place it occurs.” Remaining paragraph: “Combine all of it up! Maybe that funding financial institution can take the opposite facet of that credit score default swap, and place it – alongside different CDS contracts – into a brand new offshore automobile. Now they will promote the tranches of that new SYNTHETIC CDO! That is extremely really useful in case you want to set off a worldwide monetary disaster.” • I reall wished extra Lego, and the publish is de facto above my paygrade. However the final paragraph offers me some confidence. Readers?
Tech: “Inside Massive Tech’s underground race to purchase AI coaching information” [Reuters]. “Tech giants like Google (GOOGL.O), opens new tab, Meta (META.O), opens new tab and Microsoft-backed (MSFT.O), opens new tab OpenAI initially used reams of knowledge scraped from the web totally free [stolen] to coach generative AI fashions like ChatGPT that may mimic human creativity. They’ve stated that doing so is each authorized and moral, although they face lawsuits from a string of copyright holders over the observe…. Reuters spoke to greater than 30 individuals with information of AI information offers, together with present and former executives at corporations concerned, attorneys and consultants, to supply the primary in-depth exploration of this fledgling market – detailing the kinds of content material being purchased, the costs materializing, plus rising issues in regards to the threat of non-public information making its method into AI fashions with out individuals’s information or express consent.” • What threat? Why not simply legalize it?
Tech: “Microsoft blamed for “a cascade of safety failures” in Alternate breach report” [Ars Technica]. “A federal Cyber Security Overview Board has issued its report on what led to final summer season’s seize of lots of of 1000’s of emails by Chinese language hackers from cloud clients, together with federal companies. It cites “a cascade of safety failures at Microsoft” and finds that “Microsoft’s safety tradition was insufficient” and wishes to regulate to a ‘new regular’ of cloud supplier focusing on…. ‘All through this overview, the board recognized a sequence of Microsoft operational and strategic choices that collectively factors to a company tradition that deprioritized each enterprise safety investments and rigorous threat administration,’ the report reads.” • What’s it with these Seattle corporations…..
Right this moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 61 Greed (earlier shut: 48 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 69 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Apr 5 at 1:38:51 PM ET.
Information of the Wired
“Making crochet cacti” [Julia Evans]. “I’ve been modifying all the patterns I make in a considerably chaotic method, typically simply because I made a mistake someplace alongside the best way after which determine to maneuver ahead and alter the sample to regulate for the error as an alternative of undoing my work.” • Hmm. Is that this a typical process?
“The Sound of Knitting” [Kottke.org]. “Along with that includes knitting-friendly music, the video features a tour of the Norwegian municipality of Selbu, well-known for its beautiful mittens, in addition to a digital class on easy methods to knit these mittens. All of it appears pretty, though I confess I used to be barely disenchanted that ‘the sound of knitting’ wasn’t an ASMR video of needles clicking, though I’m certain that’s on the market, too. I imply, I do know it’s as a result of I’ve seen it. Plus, as a latest NY Instances story outlined, handwork is sweet for the mind.”
Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are tremendous! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:
TH writes: “You’ll have seen that the previous couple of photographs that I’ve despatched had been from my early January morning on the Sherman Library and Gardens in Corona Del Mar (a division of Newport Seashore), California. I’m all the time stunned on the giant number of flowers blooming in January. Sure, regardless that I’m a local of the state and ought to be used to it. I didn’t see any identification indicators on many of the crops there, however I believe this one is Cowslip.” Readers? (Wow, that blue!)
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So in case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising targets
Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
In case you hate PayPal, you may electronic mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I gives you instructions on easy methods to ship a examine. Thanks!
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