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Yves right here. Forgive me for an extended introduction to John Helmer’s dialogue of German and Polish scheming over Germany’s hoped-for expropriation of Rosneft belongings in Germany. The Russian authorities just isn’t surprisingly exercised about these plans. However the Russian information protection seems to not point out that Germany already did an enormous soiled to Russia, by seizing the belongings of Gazprom’s German subsidiaries, which included storage services. Maybe they didn’t wish to name consideration to the truth that Germany had already set a precedent of kinds.
And that precedent additionally consists of Russia having made use of its “particular retaliatory financial sanctions.” From a June 2022 put up:
Nevertheless, keep in mind Russia’s retaliatory financial sanctions? Those that appeared like a as if that they had turned out to be a humid squib? From a Might 12 put up:
Russia printed its preliminary record of events topic to its “retaliatory particular financial measures.” Putin established this system by decree on Might 3, designed to deal with the illegal taking of property and property rights by unfriendly events. The order tasked officers to give you targets in ten days and develop extra standards.
We speculated that Germany’s seizure of Gazprom operations, which included storage services, could be a main preliminary goal. We have been appropriate…TASS offers an outline:
The record consists of 31 firms from Germany, France and different European nations, in addition to from the USA and Singapore. Particularly, it consists of former European subsidiaries of Gazprom, merchants and operators of underground gasoline storage services.
Particularly, Russian authorities, authorized entities and residents won’t be able to conclude transactions with the sanctioned entities and organizations underneath their management, fulfill obligations to them underneath accomplished transactions, and conduct monetary transactions of their favor. This consists of the concluded overseas commerce contracts….
Now thus far that is all very entertaining, however what does it imply? It seems Europeans within the gasoline and presumably additionally electrical energy enterprise gained’t know for certain till Russia counterparties inform them their contracts are cancelled or they in any other case gained’t be doing enterprise with them. Keep in mind that the sanctions are sweeping by way of subjecting all Russian people and authorized individuals to them. And their utility goes past the entities listed to incorporate “organizations underneath their management.”
It seems like Russia knew precisely what it was doing. Think about the impression of the obvious step Russia would take underneath these sanctions, of not supplying gasoline to the stolen Gazprom companies. From reader vao:
However there may be extra on the gasoline entrance in Germany, and prices for the German State are piling up.
Keep in mind that story with Gazprom Germania taken over by the Bundesnetzagentur as trustee? Effectively,
1) After being positioned underneath the administration of the Bundesnetzagentur, Gazprom embargoed provides to its former German unit, i.e. Gazprom Germania and its host of subsidiaries storing and delivering gasoline in Germany. Because of this GG has not but managed to re-fill its storage tanks.
2) Moreover, since GG had contracts to fulfil, it needed to purchase gasoline elsewhere at a lot greater costs — which proved completely unprofitable, a lot in order that GG is sort of bankrupt.
3) The German authorities is now embarking on a reorganization to keep away from the cessation of actions by GG. GG shall be lent as much as €10bn via the KfW to make sure the continuity of operations.
4) It isn’t but sure whether or not the federal government will again the mortgage with a State assure, or whether or not it would convert it to fairness (through which case the German State will change into a shareholder of GG).
5) The trusteeship shall be transformed from October onwards to a everlasting administration, and Gazprom Germania renamed to “Securing Vitality for Europe GmbH”.
6) In one other step, the Bundesnetzagentur has determined to grant a 40% rebate on the charges to be paid when feeding the German gasoline distribution networks from LNG provides.
So it’s not simply the German trade and households which can be feeling the ache due to excessive gasoline costs — the State funds is getting straight hammered as nicely due to the implications of the spat with Russia.
Now admittedly Russia was capable of mess with Germany (and Austria, it additionally refused funds from Austrian operations that have been a part of the seized Gazrprom entities) as a result of Europe had not absolutely divorced itself1 from Russian vitality. And recall this damage as a result of regardless that Europe would possibly be capable to spherical up sufficient LNG, that was at spot market costs, versus its previous, decrease long-term contract costs.
So Russia has arrange the authorized means to interact in financial retaliation. And it used them with the final biggish German asset seizure. However the response was focused. What choices does Russia have if the Rosneft seizure proceeds? Or if the Collective West is dumb sufficient to steal the frozen Russian central financial institution belongings?
By John Helmer, the longest constantly serving overseas correspondent in Russia, and the one western journalist to direct his personal bureau impartial of single nationwide or business ties. Helmer has additionally been a professor of political science, and an advisor to authorities heads in Greece, america, and Asia. He’s the primary and solely member of a US presidential administration (Jimmy Carter) to determine himself in Russia. Initially printed at Dances with Bears
That is how the struggle within the Ukraine doesn’t finish, not for the Germans and the Poles.
As long as they’ll, they plan to steal or destroy Russian belongings west of what was Kievan Ukraine; and mobilize the US navy bases in each nations to bolster and defend their larcenies.
The German political occasion which guarantees to proceed this struggle for the employment of German employees and the enrichment of German executives and shareholders will win the subsequent election, changing the Social Democratic Social gathering and the Greens because the occasion of struggle.
The post-Ukraine technique of the Stavka begins right here — Ha Берлин! To Berlin!
On Friday final, the Russian language version of the German state medium Deutsche Welle (DW) printed a report of German and Polish authorities plans for the expropriation of PCK, the Rosneft crude oil refinery at Schwedt in northern Germany, and the Rosneft community of working belongings in Germany, Poland, and Austria.
The German belongings of Rosneft, the Russian state oil manufacturing firm underneath worldwide sanctions, had been positioned underneath what the German authorities known as “fiduciary administration” by an “impartial” state regulator in September 2022. This was introduced on the time as a momentary association to adjust to the sanctions, renewable each six months, however leaving undisturbed the Russian possession of the belongings. This scheme was renewed at six month-to-month intervals, as Rosneft has reported.
There was nothing impartial in regards to the BNA or what it has been doing each six months. BNA stands for the Federal Community Company — Bundesnetzagentur für Elektrizität, Fuel, Telekommunikation, Put up und Eisenbahnen. It claims to be “an impartial greater federal authority with its foremost workplace in Bonn working throughout the scope of enterprise of the Federal Ministry for Financial Affairs and Local weather Motion (BMWK) and the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV). We have now been chargeable for Germany’s important electrical energy, gasoline, telecommunications and postal infrastructures for over 20 years.”
“Throughout the scope of” is a German fig leaf for “underneath management”.
“Our activity,” BNA says, is “to make sure honest and non-discriminatory competitors for all market contributors. Our success and our experience in regulation led to the vitality and rail sectors additionally being positioned underneath our duty.”
This was not what the federal government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz supposed when it commenced its takeover of Rosneft and assigned BNA the position of camp guard. BNA described what it was doing to “safeguard safety of provide in Germany…on the premise of the Vitality Safety of Provide Act (part 17 EnSiG) till 15 March 2023. This foundation permits the fiduciary to take motion to maintain the enterprise working in accordance with its significance for the functioning of society within the vitality sector. The fiduciary administration could also be prolonged underneath sure circumstances… The choice to introduce fiduciary administration was prompted by…by the sanctions imposed on Russia…The fiduciary administration implies that the unique proprietor not has authority to difficulty directions.”
MAP OF ROSNEFT’S MAIN ASSETS IN GERMANY
Supply: https://www.rosneft.de/
In line with BNA’s first “letter of consolation” at its takeover, “RDG has stakes in PCK Raffinerie GmbH (PCK) in Schwedt/Oder, Bayernoil Raffineriegesellschaft mbH (Bayernoil), Mineralölraffinerie Oberrhein GmbH & Co. KG (MiRO) and in numerous oil pipelines in Germany (Deutsche Transalpine Oelleitung GmbH), Austria (Transalpine Ölleitung in Österreich GmbH), Italy (Soc IT per I’Oléodotto Transalpino SpA) and France (Société du pipeline Sud-Européen SA). RDG has crude oil processed within the refineries PCK in Schwedt, MiRO in Karlsruhe and Bayernoil in Ingolstadt and can be chargeable for distribution of the petroleum merchandise produced within the refineries consistent with its stake in every refinery and the crude oil processed there. RNRM [Rosneft Refining & Marketing GmbH] helps RDG [Rosneft Deutschland GmbH] as a service firm and holds shares in AET Raffineriebeteiligungsgesellschaft mbH, which in flip holds shares in PCK. RDG and its affiliate RNRM, collectively maintain a majority stake in PCK.”
“The enterprise actions of RDG and RNRM are of decisive significance for the functioning of society within the vitality sector and the sustaining of safety of provide. Owing to the scope of its oil transactions and its numerous stakes in refineries and pipelines, RDG is a central firm in Germany’s oil provide. The PCK refinery, which is operated collectively by RDG and RNRM, is likely one of the largest refineries within the Federal Republic of Germany and ensures a primary provide of petroleum merchandise to the north-east of Germany and Berlin airport. RDG and RNRM thus fulfil key features which can be important for the safety of provide in Germany and Europe.”
Within the new report from Deutsche Welle, it’s now made clear that with the beginning of navy collapse of the Ukrainian and NATO forces east of the Dnieper River, and the election of the Donald Tusk coalition to manipulate Poland, a scheme of expropriation has been ready that may proceed the sanctions struggle in opposition to Russia for the foreseeable future.
“More and more doubtless”, the phrase with which this report by Andrei Gurkov leads, is future tense and never but a certainty. The talk inside and out of doors the Berlin Chancellery is reported right here, concluding with the Scholz authorities spokesman saying it’s “inspecting the chance [of expropriation]. A call has not but been made.”
Rosneft has replied via its German legislation agency, Malmendier Authorized, which has ties to the German Christian Democratic Union (CDU) occasion and to Moscow. “Such an expropriation would signify a measure that may stay unprecedented within the historical past of the Federal Republic of Germany and would without end harm funding safety…As a listed inventory company, Rosneft will take all measures to guard the rights of its shareholders.”
The Kremlin spokesman has introduced: “That is nothing else than the expropriation of another person’s property. These are steps that undermine the financial and authorized foundations of European states, these are steps that completely devalue the funding attractiveness of those nations and have very deep penalties for many who make such selections. We don’t exclude something to guard our pursuits and to counter the unlawful steps that we’re speaking about.” Rosneft is already suing in Germany’s Constitutional Court docket in opposition to the BNA trustee administration scheme.
The worth of the Rosneft belongings proposed for seizure is about $7 billion. The German newspaper Handelsblatt reported on February 9 that Rosneft chief govt Igor Sechin had despatched a proper letter proposing that the German authorities purchase Rosneft out on the market value. Habeck’s ministry has denied receiving such a letter.
Translated verbatim from the Russian unique, the next report explains the strategic political and business calculations in Berlin and Warsaw. The map and illustrations appeared within the DW publication. The image and caption of Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck in Warsaw on February 13, and the illustration and caption reporting the management purge at Orlen, the Polish oil firm, have been added.
Supply: https://www.dw.com/
February 16, 2024
Germany nationalizes Rosneft Deutschland, Poland will assist
by Andrei Gurkov
Expropriation of Rosneft’s German belongings is changing into more and more doubtless. Warsaw is able to present oil to the Schwedt refinery and substitute provides from Kazakhstan. However what about compensation?
The PCK Raffinerie Schwedt refinery in Schwedt, Germany.
The nationalization of Rosneft’s German belongings is changing into increasingly more doubtless, and new alerts from Poland reinforce this impression. The German authorities is working out of time: on March 10, when the subsequent choice on the switch of Rosneft Deutschland underneath the so-called belief administration of the state expires. Berlin, apparently, not needs to increase this regime launched in September 2022 for six months, as a result of they search a secure, not momentary, resolution to the destiny of the oil refinery in Schwedt — PCK Raffinerie Schwedt.
Germany and Poland focus on the destiny of the Schwedt refinery
That is precisely the case, though Rosneft has different belongings in Germany. However on this refinery, the state-owned Russian concern truly owns 54%, and sustaining Moscow’s management over a strategically essential enterprise appears to the German authorities to be an excessive amount of of a threat, particularly in opposition to the background of the rising risk from Russia. In spite of everything, PCK Raffinerie Schwedt offers petroleum merchandise to a major a part of East Germany and, above all, to the capital of the nation, Berlin, with its roughly 4 million inhabitants.
Left: Berlin, February 12, 2024: the brand new Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (left) visits German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Proper, Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck in Warsaw on February 13. For a report of his talks there, learn this.
The intention of the German authorities to place an finish to the legally suspended state of the plant has clearly strengthened after the latest elections in Poland. They dropped at energy a pro-European coalition, which German politicians belief far more than the earlier Polish authorities. Relations between the 2 nations are at the moment warming quickly, as evidenced by the talks between the brand new Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Berlin on February 12.
Due to this fact, the go to of Vice Chancellor and Minister of Economic system of Germany Robert Habeck to Warsaw the subsequent day, February 13, performed an essential, and maybe decisive position in figuring out the subsequent concrete steps with regard to Rosneft Deutschland.
“Poland has helped lots prior to now to offer oil to the east of Germany,” the German minister recalled after the talks and made it clear that within the occasion of the expropriation of Rosneft, the provision of the plant in Schwedt would enhance, for the reason that Polish facet is able to considerably enhance the pumping of oil via its territory in direction of Germany from the port of Gdansk. In line with the Reuters information company, citing an knowledgeable supply, Warsaw assured Berlin even earlier than Habeck’s arrival that it will give you the chance, if needed, to utterly substitute the volumes of Kazakh oil at the moment flowing to Schwedt.
Warsaw: Oil from Kazakhstan might be utterly changed
Some explanations are wanted right here. Till 2023, this refinery, constructed six a long time in the past within the GDR on the border with Poland, operated completely on oil coming from the USSR after which from Russia through the Druzhba oil pipeline. In response to the full-scale Russian aggression in opposition to Ukraine, the European Union imposed an embargo on Russian oil transported by tankers, however not on provides through the Druzhba pipeline system, since a number of Jap European EU members are nonetheless closely depending on them. Nevertheless, the German authorities determined for its half to utterly abandon Russian oil.
Since final yr, the Schwedt plant has been provided with oil bought on the world market in 3 ways. From the German Baltic port of Rostock through a longstanding and never very highly effective pipeline that was initially laid down as a backup — via the Polish port of Gdansk, from the place oil is pumped via Poland utilizing the westernmost phase of the Druzhba, and from Kazakhstan in transit via the Russian territory on the identical Druzhba.
Germany strongly emphasizes its want to extend oil purchases in Kazakhstan, cooperation with which is changing into extra intensive. Nevertheless, there are fears that within the occasion of the nationalization of Rosneft’s German belongings, Moscow will block the Druzhba oil pipeline as a retaliatory measure and thereby [stop] the provision of Kazakh oil.
However now the Polish facet has assured Berlin, in keeping with a Reuters supply, that on this occasion it would introduce oil at the moment being pumped via its territory in direction of Sweden to 2.5 million [metric] tons per yr, and thereby absolutely compensate for provides from Kazakhstan. Their quantity, in keeping with the company, now ranges from 1.0 to 1.2 million tons. Up to now, about 1.2 million tons of merchandise bought on the world market are passing via Gdansk. Theoretically, it may be oil from Kazakhstan. On the identical time, Warsaw made it clear to the German facet that so long as Rosneft stays the principle co-owner of PCK Raffinerie Schwedt, even whether it is formal by way of exterior administration, there shall be no enhance in provides via Gdansk.
There isn’t any query of promoting Rosneft Deutschland
It’s noteworthy that articles within the German media about Robert Habeck’s negotiations in Warsaw, and generally about the way forward for Rosneft Deutschland, in impact don’t take into account the choice of Rosneft promoting this firm and its belongings. That is regardless of the letter with such a proposal, because the financial newspaper Handelsblatt wrote in early February, from the top of the Russian concern Igor Sechin to the German authorities. However Berlin, the publication concluded, “has positioned its guess on expropriation.”
That is in all probability because of the truth that the implementation of a deal in Germany that may permit Rosneft and thus Russia which continues the struggle in Ukraine, to earn a multibillion-dollar sum, could be unlawful because of worldwide sanctions in opposition to the Russian Federation — or at the very least it will look extraordinarily unusual. Additionally it is doubtless that underneath the circumstances of the sanctions regime, there are merely no individuals prepared to take care of a Russian state-owned firm that falls underneath this regime, and thereby expose themselves to the chance of secondary penalties.
In any case, the Polish oil firm Orlen, which is taken into account one of the crucial doubtless contenders for Rosneft’s stake in PCK Raffinerie Schwedt, will certainly not go for such a take care of the Russian concern, since gaining management of this refinery would match nicely into its technique of worldwide growth. On this context already, Orlen owns a big community of petrol stations in Germany. Furthermore, it’s Orlen which imports oil to Poland via the port of Gdansk. On the identical time, it appears fairly doubtless that the German authorities will first nationalize Rosneft Deutschland, after which, after a while, promote its stake within the Schwedt refinery to Orlen. That is even supposing final yr the Bundestag created authorized grounds for such a sale even with out nationalization.
“Daniel Obajtek, the CEO of state vitality big Orlen – the biggest agency in Poland and the whole Central and Jap Europe area – has been dismissed from his place. He was an in depth ally of the previous ruling Regulation and Justice (PiS) occasion and the choice to take away him comes amid a wider overhaul of administration at state-owned firms underneath Donald Tusk’s new authorities, which took workplace final month. Obajtek oversaw an formidable growth of Orlen, leading to it final yr rating amongst Europe’s 50 largest corporations. However he additionally confronted accusations that he used the agency’s sources to help PiS, together with throughout its election marketing campaign final yr…Forward of final yr’s parliamentary elections, Orlen was accused of artificially protecting gas costs low to assist PiS’s marketing campaign. The agency denied it, however costs started to rise once more simply days after the elections, through which PiS misplaced its majority. In line with the previous Orlen CEO Jacek Krawiec, the worth cuts earlier than the election could have value Orlen a complete of 5.7 billion zloty (€1.31 billion)… The market appeared to react positively to the choice to dismiss Obajtek. At midday, the agency’s shares have been up nearly 3.5% on the day, buying and selling at 64.8 zloty a share.” Learn extra at https://notesfrompoland.com/
Rosneft will be capable to declare compensation
In line with many consultants, the German authorities has created the authorized grounds for the nationalization of Rosneft’s belongings as a result of want to make sure the nation’s vitality safety again in 2022, making acceptable modifications to nationwide laws. However German legal professionals for Rosneft Deutschland have already said that within the occasion of expropriation they’ll do their greatest to problem its legality.
Nevertheless, they’ll have a significantly better probability of success in getting compensation for Rosneft for nationalized property, legal professionals interviewed by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper consider. Their statements are given in an article titled “Rosneft is changing into a authorized threat for Germany.”
When Gazprom Germania was nationalized in 2022, Gazprom didn’t get compensation for the misplaced property, for the reason that Russian concern first tried to secretly change house owners, thereby violating German legislation, after which itself deserted its German subsidiary. Within the case of Rosneft Deutschland, there don’t appear to have been such egregious violations thus far, in keeping with the newspaper’s sources.
Due to this fact, of their opinion, the Russian facet will be capable to legally declare compensation within the worldwide arbitration courts and, presumably even compensation for damages, and right here the quantities could also be even larger. One other query is whether or not the German state should pay a multibillion-dollar sum to a sanctioned Russian firm proper now, within the midst of the struggle in Ukraine. In spite of everything, courtroom proceedings on such points usually final for years. It’s potential that the German authorities is relying on this.
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1 Yours actually can’t maintain monitor of all of the shifting elements, however I consider Europe continues to be getting Russia oil that has been laundered in Indian refineries into finish merchandise.
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