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As the worldwide neighborhood experiences a turbulent and unpredictable interval, Kazakhstan, alongside different nations, faces a variety of challenges and dangers. A well timed reorientation and adjustment of each its exterior and inner insurance policies could allow the nation to successfully deal with these challenges and even extract advantages from them.
For instance, the Ukraine struggle uncovered vulnerabilities stemming from Kazakhstan’s intensive financial and commerce relations with its northern neighbor, Russia. In gentle of this, the Kazakh authorities has more and more targeted on growing resiliency in managing the safety, commerce, and logistical challenges it’s dealing with at this time. Amongst these challenges are numerous restrictions relating to northern commerce routes, in addition to issues in regards to the potential introduction of secondary sanctions. Coping with these challenges, the Kazakh authorities realized the significance of discovering new markets, commerce routes, and financial alternatives for the nation.
On this setting, Kazakhstan has emerged as a mannequin for revising its international coverage in favor of cooperation with South Asia in service to this quest for brand spanking new prospects. This transfer will be checked out as an try and diversify away from its heavy dependence on Russia, paired additionally with a rigorously crafted balanced place towards each america and Russia.
There may be another method to view these shifts, nonetheless, based on which Russia is probably an actor gently pushing Kazakhstan towards the south, as Moscow may profit from commerce routes to by way of Central Asia. As was acknowledged by Russian President Vladimir Putin final July, “the worldwide transport hall ‘North-South’ will present Russian items with a shorter path to the African continent and again to Russia.”
Whatever the motivation, there was a noticeable enhance in Kazakhstan’s curiosity in South Asian nations, notably Afghanistan. Certainly, in December Kazakhstan’s International Ministry determined to exclude the Taliban from its record of terrorist organizations.
Afghanistan’s market (as an importer of business and agricultural merchandise) and its place (as a commerce route that may join Central Asia to nations akin to Pakistan, with vital ports) are each critically necessary to Kazakhstan and form its rising new Afghanistan coverage.
Kazakhstan’s Commerce Relations with Afghanistan.
Kazakhstan’s assist for Afghanistan is rooted not simply in concerns of regional stability but in addition Astana’s personal financial pursuits in rising commerce hyperlinks by way of Afghanistan into South Asia.
Though Kazakhstan has by no means formally acknowledged the Taliban authorities in Afghanistan, it has been pragmatic about contacts with the Taliban and maintained financial and commerce relations with the nation. The primary high-level interplay between Kazakhstan and the Taliban authorities occurred on September 2021, lower than a month after the Taliban assumed management. Kazakhstan’s then-Ambassador to Afghanistan Alimkhan Yessengeldiyev met with Performing Taliban International Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Kabul, the place they dedicated to strengthening financial cooperation.
Collaboration for the revival and extension of commerce and financial hyperlinks contributed to a considerable enhance in commerce turnover between the 2 nations. In 2022 the quantity of commerce between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan reached a file $987.9 million, twice as a lot because the earlier yr ($474.3 million). By November 2023, the commerce between the 2 nations had decreased to $583 million, with it unlikely to have jumped dramatically within the closing month of the yr.
In an interview with journalists in Could 2023, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce and Integration Serik Zhumangarin mentioned, “Politics is politics, economics is economics,” when discussing commerce with Taliban-controlled Afghanistan. His intent was to convey that even with out recognizing the Taliban authorities and whereas disagreeing with their home insurance policies, it’s doable to have a fruitful bilateral commerce relationship because it brings advantages to either side. Kazakhstan’s strategy is pragmatic and sensible, on condition that Afghanistan has grow to be a serious marketplace for the sale of Kazakh merchandise.
In January 2023, Afghanistan turned one of many prime 10 buying and selling companions of Kazakhstan due to the export of $133.8 million value of diesel-electric railway locomotives to Afghanistan. As compared, the export of a single locomotive was equal to the quantity of complete month-to-month commerce of Kazakhstan with Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan.
The Kazakh-Afghan enterprise discussion board held in April 2023 in Kabul was a big funding in strengthening current ties. Throughout the discussion board, they introduced the opening of a buying and selling home within the Afghan capital. This contrasts with the closure of the Commerce Illustration of Kazakhstan in Russia final yr.
Kazakhstan’s Pursuits in Transport and Logistics
As beforehand talked about, Kazakhstan appears to have far larger pursuits in cooperation with Afghanistan utilizing the geographical location of the nation as a commerce hall for reaching South Asian ports. Kazakhstan is especially all for collaborating within the reconstruction and growth of Afghanistan’s infrastructure, particularly within the fields of transport, vitality, and agriculture. This was evidenced by a March 2023 assembly between Muttaqi and Yessengeldiyev. The aim of the assembly was to debate the event of the railway system in Afghanistan.
Nonetheless, Kazakhstan doesn’t border Afghanistan and doesn’t have any current routes put in. This actuality is predicted to push Kazakh authorities to deepen collaboration with different Central Asian nations, notably Uzbekistan, within the development of trans-Afghan transit and logistical initiatives.
Kazakhstan has already taken steps to assist restore Afghanistan’s rail potential. The Afghanistan Railway Authority and the Kazakhstani firm Integra Development signed a contract to renew development work on a railway department from Rozanak Station to Rabattaryan Station (43 kilometers) in October 2023.
Moreover, one other profit that Kazakhstan may get pleasure from is participation within the mining business as Afghanistan is reportedly wealthy in sources akin to copper, gold, valuable stones, and others. Based mostly on a survey of solely 30 % of Afghan territory, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimated the nation’s useful resource wealth to be round $1 trillion. This has attracted many events, akin to China, and may additionally curiosity Kazakhstan. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid just lately declared that Kazakh firms, amongst others, are anticipated to spend money on the mining sector, vitality manufacturing, and hydroelectric initiatives in 2024.
Home Motivations
The primary consider Kazakhstan’s home politics that influences its current strategy towards Afghanistan is the current cadre reshuffle. In September 2023, then-Minister of Commerce and Integration Serik Zhumangarin, recognized for his pragmatic views on Kazakhstan’s approaches to Afghanistan, was promoted to the place of deputy prime minister. This means top-line assist for his views relating to the institution of pragmatic financial ties with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan and means that they are going to be additional solidified in Kazakhstan’s international coverage agenda.
Furthermore, additionally in September 2023, the institution of a Ministry of Transport was introduced, signaling the nation’s readiness to dedicate particular consideration to infrastructure and transportation initiatives, each domestically and internationally.
Late final yr, Kazakhstan dispatched a brand new ambassador to Kabul, Alim Khan Yasin Gildayev. He met with Muttaqi on December 29.
One other inner issue that influences Kazakhstan’s coverage is public opinion relating to lively cooperation with Afghanistan. Kazakh skilled Eldaniz Gusseinov, of the Heartland Skilled-Analytical Heart, instructed The Diplomat that the Kazakhstan-Afghanistan Enterprise Discussion board held in April 2023 triggered some criticism and issues amongst part of Kazakhstan’s inhabitants. Folks expressed concern of their nation’s convergence with a state dominated by a “terrorist group.”
However then again, as described above, the Kazakh authorities clearly notice the significance of Afghanistan’s involvement in regional processes and the advantages that Central Asian nations may get from usable trans-Afghan routes.
Potential Challenges to Kazakhstan’s Afghanistan Coverage
Whereas shaping its rising coverage towards Afghanistan, the Kazakh authorities should consider the truth that the Taliban’s authorities remains to be not acknowledged by the worldwide neighborhood. This lends a level of unpredictability to the situation.
One other necessary drawback is that based on Collective Safety Treaty Group (CSTO) knowledge, there are greater than 20 terrorist organizations working within the territory of Afghanistan, a complete variety of roughly 10,000 people. The potential goals of those numerous teams will not be essentially recognized in full, however their presence poses a possible risk to the broader area. This can be a trigger for concern as a result of a safe setting is required to successfully exploit the potential of trans-Afghan rail routes.
As a way to totally notice commerce routes that can join Kazakhstan to South Asia’s main buying and selling ports, it will likely be necessary for Kazakhstan to proceed growing ties with Uzbekistan. Regardless of the present optimistic trajectory of relations between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, there are potential conflicts between the 2 that might harm Kazakhstan’s plans.
Lastly, Kazakhstan’s Afghanistan coverage could possibly be hindered partially by Astana’s membership within the Eurasian Financial Union. The requirement of consensus throughout the union relating to sure commerce insurance policies could complicate Kazakhstan’s ambitions in Afghanistan, or on the very least chip away at Kazakhstan’s capacity to independently develop such financial and commerce relations.
Conclusion
The financial and political penalties of the struggle in Ukraine arguably prompted Kazakhstan to look extra severely southward to Afghanistan and South Asia. Nonetheless, it’s value noting that though Kazakhstan is wanting away from its northern neighbor, this initiative additionally aligns with Russia’s pursuits. Russia is a doable beneficiary of the exact same commerce routes through which Kazakhstan is at present most .
The Kazakh authorities are in search of entry to South Asia’s seaports by helping within the growth of routes throughout Afghanistan. The conclusion of such commerce routes require Kazakhstan to take steps in strengthening cooperation with the opposite nations of Central Asia, particularly Uzbekistan, which at present manages the development of the trans-Afghan railway route from Termez by way of Mazar-i-Sharif, Kabul, and on to Peshawar, Pakistan.
Kazakhstan’s current exclusion of the Taliban from its record of terrorist organizations speaks loudly relating to their angle towards the Taliban authorities, confirming a dedication to additional shut cooperation. If the relative peace in Afghanistan continues, Kazakhstan’s Afghanistan coverage will pragmatically forge forward as cooperation deepens.
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