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Yves right here. We have been amongst these to level out, comparatively early, that Russia would dictate phrases when the Ukraine conflict ended. However John Helmer was first to acknowledge that de-electrification was the leverage level on this marketing campaign. Turning out the lights, as a lot as they’ll have to be, is trying to be the mechanism to power Ukraine’s capitulation.
Helmer expands on his theme of how the electrical conflict has develop into central, even when the battlefield combat additionally continues.
By John Helmer, the longest constantly serving international correspondent in Russia, and the one western journalist to direct his personal bureau impartial of single nationwide or business ties. Helmer has additionally been a professor of political science, and an advisor to authorities heads in Greece, america, and Asia. He’s the primary and solely member of a US presidential administration (Jimmy Carter) to ascertain himself in Russia. Initially printed at Dances with Bears
It was a comparatively shiny day, November 21, 1920, when Vladimir Lenin, having gained the civil conflict and pushed off the American, British, French, Canadian, and Australian invasion forces, introduced: “Communism is Soviet energy plus the electrification of the entire nation, since business can’t be developed with out electrification.”
Come November 2024 it is going to be a century and 4 years to rely what Lenin meant, and the way Russia is proving itself in opposition to all the things which the navy industries, particular forces, weapons, intelligence so-called, operations, and plans of the previous invasion coalition, plus Germany, can throw at it. So on November 21, 2024, it is going to be time to revise Lenin’s maxim to learn: Russia is navy energy plus the de-electrification of the nations which assault it.
That is electrical conflict.
To make the conflict goal unambiguously clear, President Vladimir Putin ordered his ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Vasily Nebenzya (lead picture, left), to learn out a paper at his desk within the UN Safety Council chamber on April 11: “very quickly, the one subject for worldwide conferences in Ukraine would be the unconditional give up of the Kiev regime.”
Be aware what the phrases “unconditional give up of the Kiev regime” imply: complete navy defeat of the Ukrainian, American, British, French, Polish, and different forces on the Ukrainian territory and within the air surrounding; give up of the municipal administrations of the east-bank cities, together with Kharkov, Dniepropetrovsk, and Odessa; disarmament and demilitarization of the territory between Kiev and the Polish border; exit of each member of the regime, beginning with Vladimir Zelensky.
That is an ultimatum with out options for both Moscow or Kiev. In electrical conflict, are there any options?
Nebenzya was making his announcement on the night of Thursday, April 11, Kiev time. Within the time it took for his textual content to be drafted, edited by the International Ministry, approved on the Kremlin, and Nebenzya given the go-ahead, it had been just a few hours after the lights of Kiev went out when the Tripolskaya energy station was destroyed by a brand new Russian missile, the X-69 (lead picture, proper).
THE GEOGRAPHY OF TARGETING IN THE ELECTRIC WAR TO DATE
Click on to enlarge key and establish areas: https://t.me/rezervsvo/53515
The strike in opposition to the Tripolskaya plant was carried out by X-69 missiles fired by Su-34 or Su-35 plane flying at a variety of as much as 400 kilometres from the targets. The plane have been in Russian airspace, out of vary of Ukrainian Patriot and different air defence batteries; the missiles, nevertheless, penetrated the air defence display screen round Kiev and couldn't be intercepted. Supply: https://t.me/s/Slavyangrad
Supply: https://www.ft.com/ Be aware the only, tiny yellow blip southwest of Donetsk which the Anglo-American mapmaker calls “Ukrainian claimed counteroffensive”.
As of April 10, 2024: Supply: https://t.me/sputniklive/78749
Boris Rozhin, whose Colonel Cassad navy weblog broadly represents Normal Employees considering, stories the operational breakthrough demonstrated on April 11, and explains what the maps of present concentrating on foreshadow for the following spherical of strikes, and the rounds after that. Rozhin republishes his evaluation from RT, the state media organ.
“By the night of April 11, Ukrainian sources reported that air-launched X-69 missiles could possibly be used to hit the Tripolskaya TPP [Thermal Power Plant]. To date, there is no such thing as a affirmation of this info, however it’s price finding out these missiles in additional element. Their vary is sort of 20 instances lower than that of the X-101 missiles [equivalent to about 250-500 kilometres], the carriers of that are strategic plane of the Aerospace Forces [Tu-95]. Of their [X-69] operate, they’re nearer to the international [Anglo-French] Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles, that are being tried for strikes on the Crimean Bridge. The [X-69’s] lengthy vary of the 300 km could possibly be sufficient if the launches of missiles have been carried out from the territory of the Bryansk area. If using missiles is confirmed sooner or later, it is going to imply that no power facility of the Ukraine on the Dnieper River can work safely, and the strike capabilities of the Aerospace Forces have multiplied.” https://t.me/rt_russian/197065
“A number of components have led to the weakening of the air defence in Ukraine, amongst which within the first place is the disproportionately excessive consumption of costly anti-[aircraft] missiles SAMP-T, and Patriot, in addition to each day losses of the international air defence programs close to the entrance line. They’ve been deployed there to forestall Russian plane, or at the least cut back their exercise, however as a consequence, the international air defence programs themselves have develop into the goal. And so the circle is closed — medium-range air defence programs can’t be positioned on power amenities now as a result of danger of destruction; within the occasion they’re destroyed, the West is in no hurry to interchange the launchers and radars. Because of this, the important thing power amenities stay unprotected; it turns into simpler to hit them; and for mixed strikes it’s now not essential to make use of [Russian] strategic aviation, because it was firstly of the SVO or all through the previous 12 months. These circumstances enable the Russian Protection Ministry to cut back the consumption of long-range X-101 missiles, and open up for the Normal Employees the chance to broaden the operational horizon in placing, and contemplate the next world steps, for which long-range technique of destruction will likely be required.”
“What objectives will be affected after Tripolskaya? For those who evaluate the vary of the X-69 missiles with the placement of power amenities on the Dnieper, you could find that as a result of scarcity of air defences, the presence of low cost cruise missiles, and the big variety of combatants from the Russian aspect, you’ll be able to manage an enormous strike on any goal within the central a part of Ukraine. It’s noteworthy {that a} important a part of the TPP [thermal power plant], CHP [combined heat and power plant], and HPPs [hydroelectric power plant] on the Dnieper have already been attacked as soon as or a number of instances. However with using the X-69, the price of which is a number of instances lower than X-101/X-555, the destruction of Ukraine’s power infrastructure can attain a basically new degree.”
“On the similar time, the cumulative impact of the blows continues to shake the Ukrainian power community: the sudden lack of 1.8 GW of technology in opposition to the background of the destruction of the Tripolskaya thermal energy plant and the overall scarcity of electrical energy is a severe and unsolved drawback for the foreseeable future. There aren’t so many partially functioning and as but not totally destroyed targets; three of them – Zmievskaya, Pridneprovskaya, and Kryvorizhska [Krivoy Rog] are actually inside attain of the X-69 missiles. For the ultimate destruction of comparable amenities within the west of Ukraine (Burshtyn and Dobrotrytskaya TPP) a mixed missile strike with using long-range X-101 will be carried out.”
For a information to the measurement models of electrical energy technology and consumption, click on to learn.
MAP OF LOCATIONS OF UKRAINE POWER GENERATING PLANTS BY TYPE
Supply: https://en.wikipedia.org
“Given the truth that the Thermal Energy Crops (TPP), in addition to the hydropower crops [HPP], within the Ukraine play an necessary position within the system and have performed the position of the power balancer, their destruction will result in the truth that there will likely be no secure electrical energy within the electrical energy system of the japanese and central a part of the Ukraine. And with out that it’s unattainable not just for business to operate, but in addition any regular life, to not point out severe navy capabilities.”
The Ukraine has printed electrical energy capability ranges earlier than the conflict reaching their peak on January 25, 2022 — based on Ukrenergo figures, reported by the Worldwide Power Company (IEA) — of 21.13GW. Ukrainian demand on that day was 21.91GW.
Ukrenergo figures have been final printed for October 27, 2022, when the primary section of the electrical conflict was underneath method. Era amounted to 10.71GW; demand to 10.77GW. The estimated capability which survived on the finish of final month, after the electrical conflict had resumed, was estimated in Colonel Cassad reporting on March 30 at 7.8GW.
Imports of electrical energy from the encompassing EU states have been peaking final month, on March 26, at 18,649 MW per hour, or about 779.2MW of EU producing capability; that’s simply over 10% of home technology. The determine is appreciable for a single day and costly, whether or not Kiev or the Europeans pay. For the way lengthy the Ukraine and its EU neighbours can conform to sustain the speed or broaden it, is unknown. The road capability from the EU networks was at 1.7GW by late final 12 months. On paper, that appears like double final month’s peak. Russian assaults on the transmission grid inside Ukraine are more likely to cut back that.
At finest, on paper, the present producing capability of photo voltaic power crops is about 5GW; wind energy, 1.3GW. Actually, based on the final report of the Worldwide Power Company (IEA) of electrical energy technology by supply, dated February 25, 2022, the photo voltaic crops have been producing simply 0.10GW, wind crops, 0.04GW. The IEA knowledge got here from Ukrenergo, the Kiev state utility. A lot of the Ukraine’s renewable power sources are within the southeast of nation, behind or simply ahead of the entrance.
CHART OF UKRAINE ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY SOURCE TO FEBRUARY 25, 2022
Click on to enlarge view. Within the IEA’s final public report on February 25, 2022, Ukrainian nuclear crops have been producing 8.42GW, coal 3.82GW, hydro 1.28GW, pure gasoline 0.47GW, photo voltaic 0.10GW, and wind 0.04, totaling 14.13GW. For Rozhin’s evaluation of how a lot of this capability remained earlier than final week’s spherical of strikes, learn this, Rozhin’s estimate of the surviving stability on April 1 was 7.8GW. Based mostly in Paris, the IEA is a propaganda company for the Kiev regime; Russia is excluded from membership or affiliation. “The IEA is partnering with Ukraine because it bolsters its power safety”, the worldwide company says on its web site for the time being. “The Worldwide Power Company (IEA), which has deepened its relationship with Ukraine since Russia’s invasion, is stepping as much as present assist…The IEA and plenty of of our member nations are working carefully with Ukraine to assist the nation’s power system get better from Russia’s assaults.” The company has been concealing the lack of Ukrainian electrical energy capability since February 2022.
In remarks this month to the Monetary Instances of Tokyo and London, Ukrainian power officers declare they’ve three options – restore the harm, bringing the system again to regular demand ranges; add various energy sources resembling imported electrical energy from Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Moldova, Romania, and the Baltic states or native renewables, resembling photo voltaic and wind technology; or defend the electrical energy system with extra Patriot missile programs.
“Our purpose,” based on Maxim Timchenko, chief government of DTEK — the dominant Ukrainian energy firm which is owned by Rinat Akhmetov, “is to revive as a lot as we are able to by October… Topic to no additional assaults, at the least 50 per cent of broken energy models will likely be reconnected to the grid.” Had it not been for the nice and cozy climate, power imports from the EU, and a rise in renewable power technology, the present state of affairs can be a lot worse, Timchenko added.
The Russians “are attempting to chop off massive industrial areas and cities from the ability provide,” a spokesman for Ukrenergo, the state-owned grid system operator, informed the newspaper. “Smaller substations — managed by Ukrenergo — will be shielded from assaults with protecting buildings. However it is extremely troublesome, if not unattainable to cowl the big energy crops, which take a number of months and even years to revive.”
In a separate report, the FT claimed after the Tripolskaya assault that the plant had been “protected by air defences.” Whether or not these have been Patriot missiles or one thing else, the newspaper omitted to acknowledge that that they had been defeated.
It then quoted Ilya Yevlash, Ukraine Air Power’s brand-new spokesman, as saying that “solely the Patriot system was able to taking pictures down Russia’s hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon missiles. Clearly we’d like extra, which can assist us to guard our essential infrastructure and cities.” The newspaper didn’t ask — Yevlash didn’t say –why the NATO-Ukrainian crews manning the Patriot batteries have been unable to defend both their missile batteries or themselves from hypersonic Kinzhal strikes or the subsonic X-69s.
Different Russian navy bloggers are reporting new strikes within the west in opposition to thermal energy crops (TPP) at Dobrotvir, Lvov area, and Burshtyn, Ivano-Frankivsk area, in addition to the huge underground gasoline storage in Lvov often called Bilche-Volitzko-Ugerskoye.
Alexei Slovtsov has summed up the present state of affairs within the navy weblog Slavyangrad: “The enemy’s means to manoeuvre [redistribute and balance] the load has virtually disappeared. The bottom load is carried by the nuclear energy crops, and all fluctuations within the schedule can now be lined solely by imports from outdoors. And that’s restricted by the community bandwidth and energy on the opposite aspect. The flexibility to regulate frequency within the energy system will likely be tremendously decreased. The east of Ukraine is now caught in dependence on a number of strains of 330 kV and under. There, actually, the final click on is required for all the things to exit from the Dnieper to Kharkov. If the 750 kV community is killed, the system will break up into three remoted nodes across the nuclear energy crops.” Supply: April 12, 01:21.
MAP OF UKRAINIAN TRANSMISSION LINE TARGETS
This concentrating on map was drawn by navy sources for this publication on April 1. It isn't but a map of latest Russian strikes.
In line with a NATO veteran and knowledgeable in making use of electrical engineering to conflict, there is no such thing as a prospect that the regime in Kiev can fill the ability gap being created by the Russian operations. “Renewables [solar, wind] aren’t even remotely near filling the hole. They’re a rip-off, particularly within the Ukrainian case. Taking technology out of the equation, if the Russians proceed placing transmission and distribution infrastructure, in addition to manufacturing, transportation and storage amenities, the inevitable conclusion is the collapse of the Ukrainian electrical energy grid. This implies the collapse of Ukrainian society. As we watch the electrical conflict unfold, I get the impression that pushing [Ukrainian] individuals west of the Dnieper is the [Russian] purpose of the present section of the electrical conflict – so name this Part 2.”
The supply mentioned the bordering NATO states lack the capability to extend their electrical energy provides to the Ukraine, even with the addition of newly introduced energy sources within the Baltic states. This European business publication has reported that in 2023 Ukrainian imports from the European Union (EU) had doubled from 2021 to 935 million kWh.
How way more EU sources can present is unsure. Ukrainian sources informed the Monetary Instances final week that “within the aftermath of the March strikes, imports from the EU reached a report 18,700MWh, the equal generated by two energy crops. Within the months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of 2022, Ukraine related its grid to neighbouring EU nations Romania, Slovakia, Hungary and Poland.”
The Worldwide Power Company (IEA), which publishes what it calls “real-time knowledge on electrical energy demand and technology in Ukraine”, stopped reporting the demand and technology knowledge after February 2022. The US propaganda supply, Atlantic Council, is at present claiming that “Ukraine expands EU power exports in recent show of wartime resilience”; Actually, Ukrainian electrical energy exports have stopped, and imports from the EU might already be higher than the Atlantic Council estimated in March to be 1700MW (1.7GW).
Final month, the western press was repeating Kiev’s claims. “In its newest replace on power safety in Ukraine, the nation’s Power Ministry mentioned Sunday [March 17] the ability provide system remained ‘balanced’ regardless of technical disruptions and shelling. ‘No scarcity of electrical energy is predicted’, it mentioned in a press launch on its web site. ‘For the present day, electrical energy imports are anticipated to achieve 3,900 MWh, whereas exports are additionally anticipated to achieve 2,000 MWh’ it added. On March 5, 2024, the ministry, which oversees Ukrenegro, mentioned Ukraine achieved an electrical energy surplus which was exported to Poland within the quantity of 246 mWh.”
Within the 4 weeks since then the Russian Normal Employees have despatched Kinzhal and X-69 to contradict the claims.
The NATO electrical engineer provides: “I don’t consider the transmission strains between the Ukraine and the EU have the capability for the compensating improve required to fill the hole.”
Oleg Tsarev is an influential Ukrainian political determine and potential Russian candidate to take the presidency in Kiev; he was the goal of Ukrainian assassination final October. He now lives and works in Crimea. Right here is his Telegram piece of April 7, analyzing the brand new section within the electrical conflict: “What has occurred? Why have our operations develop into extra placing? Partly this is because of the truth that the Russian Aerospace Forces have just about blasted the Ukrainian air protection programs. Because the summer time of 2022, the losses of such AFU [Armed Forces of the Ukraine] programs have sharply decreased as a result of integration of air defence with Western intelligence programs. Our individuals appeared carefully on the western air defence programs, analyzed their work, and appeared for vulnerabilities. And so it went on for a very long time: for the entire of 2023, based on the official stories of our Ministry of Protection, solely 46 anti-aircraft missile programs (SAMs) of Ukraine have been hit. And in three months of this 12 months, 52 have already been counted.”
“Our navy has studied how Western programs work, the way to bypass or hit them. We’ve got improved the standard of the intelligence. The defeats of the SAM on the fight entrance and within the rear are vivid examples of this. Plus a mix of Geranium drone strikes and rocket launches is used. That is confirmed by the statistics of the Normal Employees of the Armed Forces of Ukraine of their evaluation of mixed air strikes and UAVs: if firstly of 2023, our [Russian] strikes averaged about 22 per day, then within the center and finish of the 12 months, there have been over 50; in February 2024 this quantity jumped abruptly to 84 per day, and in March the speed continued. Our missiles and drones have actually elevated. There are fewer enemy air defences.”
“An important factor is, apparently, that after the assaults on our refineries and on Belgorod, selections have been made to make use of our capabilities to the fullest. Final 12 months, they [Russia] tried to not hit manufacturing amenities, and even blows to massive transformers in community nodes have been inflicted reluctantly. At this time, our weapons are hitting the engine rooms of energy crops and any related navy targets. Necessary political selections have been made, and all these strikes are simply the tip of the iceberg.”
NOTE: The affect of the Tripolskaya, Dobrotvir, and Burshtyn strikes has not but materialized in a surge of Ukrainians heading out of the blackout and into Poland. These are the newest outward and inward figures issued by the Polish Border Guard:
UKRAINIAN POPULATION MOVEMENT ACROSS THE POLISH BORDER THIS MONTH
As of compilation of those knowledge on April 14, the Polish Border Guard (Straż Graniczna) was lagging in its public stories by three days; within the first 12 months of the conflict it printed these knowledge each day. Supply: https://twitter.com/straz_graniczna?lang=en
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